Solana to $197? Bull and Bear Cases Revealed in 2026 SOL Prediction

Asset manager 21shares has revealed its outlook for the seventh largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Solana ($SOL).

In an X post, 21shares outlined its Solana predictions for 2026. In a base case scenario, it predicts Solana reaching $150, which is a 21% increase from current prices. In a bull case scenario, Solana is predicted to reach $197, a 57% increase, while in a bear case scenario, Solana might drop 23% to $95.

At press time, Solana was trading at $123, down 58.18% from an all time high of $294.33 reached on Jan. 19, 2025.

The base and bull case targets highlighted by 21shares remain minimal and bar an explosive surge in the magnitude of hundreds of percent for Solana.

In a blog post, 21shares indicated doubts about Solana capturing value despite its scaling potential being proven. It was noted that $SOL’s price will ultimately reflect not raw network performance, but the quality, durability and value capture of that performance.

Solana's scaling potential highlighted

According to 21Shares, Solana is surpassing most layer-1 networks in raw on-chain activity. The Solana network processes about 2.2 billion transactions per week, second only to Internet Computer (ICP) at 2.6 billion, and far ahead of other major chains such as BNB Chain and Tron (108 million and 62 million, respectively).

Solana is also seeing increasing U.S. dollar payments and meaningful institutional experimentation as 2026 progresses. Thus, the debate is no longer whether Solana can scale usage, as this has been resolved. The unresolved question now is whether this economic activity can translate into durable value capture for $SOL investors.

Short-term $SOL outlook

$SOL rebounded from a low of $118 on Monday, indicating that the bulls are defending the level.

The relief rally is expected to face immediate resistance at $131. If the Solana price turns down from here, the risk of a drop below the $117 level increases. Solana may then head toward solid support at $95.

On the other hand, if the Solana price turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it might continue sideways trading inside the $117 to $147 range for a little while.