Renowned Analyst Explains Two Reasons Why Altcoins Are Not Rising

George Tung, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency world, stated that Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle has now been broken and that the market is no longer driven by charts, but by geopolitical events and macroeconomic decisions.

As the cryptocurrency market moves into 2026, investors are caught between the familiar expectation of a “parabolic rise” and the reality of “macro-chaos.” Renowned analyst George Tung, in a recent broadcast, made striking statements about the future of Bitcoin, indicating that the market has now entered a completely different phase.

According to Tung, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle based on the halving event (two years of winter, one year of recovery, one year of record high) is no longer valid. The fact that 2025 is expected to be stagnant instead of bringing the anticipated parabolic rise is cited as the biggest evidence of this change.

Arguing that the main factor currently driving the market is not price charts but Donald Trump’s tariffs, regulatory moves, and geopolitical strategies, Tung summarized how dependent the market has become on politics by saying, “I’m watching Trump now, not prices.”

Tung answers the question that investors are most curious about, “Why isn’t there an altcoin season?”, with two main reasons:

The high leverage ratios offered by stock exchanges have steered investors away from “buy and hold” strategies towards short-term gambling. Tung stated that this situation has benefited market makers and exchanges, and that frequent liquidation events have prevented the market from naturally rising.

Tung stated that investors are now spending time on “prediction markets” (predictions on election results, weather, etc.) like Polymarket instead of altcoins, which are no longer beneficial, and that individual investors have completely lost confidence in small and medium-sized projects.

Another notable point for 2025 and 2026 was the massive increases in gold and silver prices. During this period, when silver gained nearly 200% in value, it is noted that some of the liquidity expected from cryptocurrencies shifted to these traditional “safe havens.”

*This is not investment advice.