cryptopolitan.com
The easy-money era in crypto might be over and most of the traders are unable to adjust. Arthur Hayes suggests that revenue now determines which tokens, stablecoins, and trading venues will survive the next cycle.
In an interview with Cryptopolitan, the Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder dropped some hints on how he underwrites token projects. However, he also shed light on why only a handful of stablecoin models have real moats and new U.S. rules could concentrate liquidity in fewer hands.
The global crypto stands in pause as Bitcoin finds it hard to reclaim the crucial $100K mark. CMC Altcoin Season Index shows that the scale is still tilted towards Bitcoin. Hayes also warned that much of the altcoin market remains a “graveyard” of zombie projects. BTC dominance stands above 59% intact at the press time.
Cash-flow businesses are the real bet
Maelstrom is reportedly raising a larger vehicle focused on profitable, off-chain businesses. To this, Arthur Hayes replied that “We noticed that there are a huge number of crypto businesses today that have cash flowing infrastructure businesses without clean exit opportunities.” Their thesis is to buy these businesses that are generating high cash flow, have reached scale, are on the path of growth, and have defensible scale.
On the build side, he described a more traditional business strategy. He stated that it is the playbook of adding a platform, bolt-on, and roll-up strategy depending on the business.
We asked how do they underwrite token projects vs. off-chain infra. Hayes stated that “We’re past the era of a spray and pray approach into a healthier market that understands revenue is king.” He added “For token projects, I underwrite based on FDV driven by the present value of earnings, specifically cumulative cashflows for token buybacks.”
In the case of infrastructure and DeFi, token design still matters. “I look at tokenomics and staking rewards generated from actual profits not just inflationary emissions,” he said.
Arthur Hayes calls most stablecoins ‘Hot Potatoes’
Earlier, Hayes had written about “stablecoin mania” and flagged risks in tokenized payment plays. He sees three categories that might have sustainable moats.
On stablecoins, he said Tether has a massive network effect in the Global South and Greater China. He added that “Ethena has a yield moat by capturing the cash and carry basis yield.” At the same time Maelstrom CIO pointed to large banks. “The Too Big to Fail Banks like JPM have domestic regulation that US regulation effectively hands the market to these banks,” he added.
He suggests that “Everything else is largely hype or hot potatoes. Any new issuer without a captive exchange or a bank relationship is dead on arrival because the distribution channels are closed.” Hayes added that “Legacy deposits move into stablecoins to save costs.” “TBTF banks like JPM will launch stablecoins turning regular deposits into programmable tokens.”
He expects traditional rails to fade into the background. He highlighted that the traditional payment rails will become the slow and expensive backup while stablecoins do the heavy lifting.
DEXs will eat CEX market share
We asked how do he think about market-making and liquidity provision will evolve in 2026. Hayes replied that “Domestically, the Genius Act and TBTF bank stablecoins will concentrate liquidity amongst a few regulated giants who enjoy government backstops.”
He sees the real shift is happening via migration to decentralized exchanges and never-expiring perps. “DEXs like Hyperliquid will overtime take marketshare from CEXs because they offer permissionless listing where anyone can create liquid markets for any asset from crypto to Nasdaq100 perps,” Hayes added.
Despite his past “go long everything” stance, Hayes said there are clear areas to avoid. “Avoid the altcoin graveyard of zombie projects and stablecoin issuers that rely on other venues for distribution.”
What if Arthur Hayes had to pick one single surprise that would change your 2026 macro view, What would it be?
He said “A dangerous surprise would be a policy wobble where politicians, fearing the inflation felt by a median voter, attempt austerity.” He further added that this would trigger a pukefest in equity and bond markets as credit contracts, triggering a 1930s style unemployment before authorities lose their nerve and return to money printing.
On the lighter end of the market, we tried to dig out his most successful meme-coin bet of 2025. Hayes mentioned that his most successful trade in 2025 was the Trump memecoin. He added that “I bought it hours after launch and sold it midway through a spa vacation, realizing it was a top signal because trading should never be that easy.”
So does meme coins actually reflect market sentiment?
In his opinion, memecoins offer a pure way to express crypto sentiment. He said “There are pockets of liquidity who is willing to trade and those traders express their views via speculation through memecoins.”
As for repeating it, he was blunt “I made money on $MEW memecoin. In the end he clearly indicated that “I am not launching a memecoin.”