en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Crypto market maker Wintermute, in its assessment of Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market, argued that the four-year cycle narrative, long considered a fundamental benchmark for the market, is no longer valid.
According to the company, while 2025 may not bring the anticipated major rally, it could be remembered as the beginning of crypto’s transformation from a speculative field to a more established asset class.
Wintermute’s analysis noted that in the past, market performance was largely shaped by self-reinforcing timing trends, but this pattern has broken down. It added that in the current period, price movements are now determined less by calendar-based cycles and more by where liquidity flows and which assets attract investor interest.
According to Wintermute’s OTC transaction flow data, the capital transfer mechanism that previously saw Bitcoin gains flow to Ethereum, then to large-scale altcoins, and finally to the wider market, weakened significantly in 2025. The company stated that ETFs and digital asset treasuries (DATs) have become “closed gardens” over time, creating sustained demand for large-scale crypto assets but failing to naturally channel capital back into the altcoin market.
The shift in retail investor interest largely towards equities during the same period made 2025 a year of extreme concentration. According to the analysis, altcoin rallies lasted an average of 20 days in 2025, compared to approximately 60 days in 2024. The majority of new capital inflows was concentrated in just a few major assets, leaving the rest of the market weak.
Wintermute stated that for the market to expand beyond majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum, at least one of three possible developments needs to occur in 2026. The first scenario highlights the expansion of investment scopes for ETFs and DATs. Noting that much of the current liquidity is trapped in institutional channels, the company said that these structures expanding their investment universe is critical for a broader recovery. ETF applications for SOL and XRP were considered early signals in this direction.
The second scenario highlights the possibility of wealth accumulation from a strong rally in Bitcoin or Ethereum spreading back to altcoins. However, Wintermute noted that uncertainty remains regarding how much new capital would flow into digital assets in this scenario.
The third and least likely scenario involves a shift in individual investor interest from AI, rare earth elements, and quantum-themed stocks back to crypto. Such a shift could significantly expand market participation through fresh capital inflows and stablecoin issuance.
According to Wintermute, the market outlook for 2026 will depend on whether any of these catalysts can move liquidity beyond a few large-scale assets. The company added that understanding where capital can flow and what structural changes are needed will determine what works in the crypto market next year.
*This is not investment advice.