Renowned Analyst Says, ‘Bitcoin is Actually in a Bear Market Right Now,’ Announces When He Expects the Bull Market to Return

Ben Cowen, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency market, made striking assessments about Bitcoin and the general market cycle during his appearance on “The Wolf Of All Streets” channel.

Cowen stated that the level Bitcoin reaches in October 2025 could be the peak of this cycle. However, he argued that this peak occurs with “apathy” (indifference) unlike past periods of “euphoria” (extreme enthusiasm).

Unlike past cycles, he noted that retail investors did not flock to the market this time, social media interest remained low, and the expected major rally in altcoins did not materialize.

Cowen stated that the current market structure resembles the period in 2019 rather than 2014 or 2018, and highlighted the following points:

The fact that the sharp 50% pullback normally expected in bear markets hasn’t happened yet is due to the absence of excessive “FOMO” (Fear of Missing Out) at the peak.

As in 2019, Bitcoin peaked shortly before the Fed began expanding its balance sheet.

Cowen expects a slow decline in the market until the summer of 2026, progressing in the form of “lower highs and lower lows,” rather than a sharp crash.

Cowen noted that altcoins are declining not only against Bitcoin but also against precious metals like silver and gold. The analyst stated that many altcoins have fallen even below their 2022 lows, suggesting that investors are now turning to assets that offer real utility rather than “promising” projects.

The analyst stated that he liquidated a portion of his Bitcoin positions in Q4 2024 but continues to hold onto 30% “against margin of error.” He noted that for a bullish scenario to resurface, Bitcoin needs to make sustained weekly closes above the 50-week moving average (around $101,000).

Cowen predicts that liquidity conditions in the market can only change when there is weakness in stock market indices (S&P 500) and with intervention from the Fed, and estimates that the real major bull season for cryptocurrencies may be delayed until 2027 or 2028.

*This is not investment advice.