Solana Price Prediction: $59M Long Liquidations Drag SOL Below EMA Cluster

Solana price today trades near $133.42 after breaking below the 20 and 50-day EMA cluster in a sharp selloff. The move triggered a cascade of long liquidations, flushing leveraged positions that had accumulated during the recent range-bound action.

Long Liquidations Accelerate The Drop

Derivatives markets absorbed significant damage over the past 24 hours. According to Coinglass, $59.51 million in long positions were liquidated compared to just $1.42 million in shorts. That 42:1 ratio reflects the one-sided positioning that built up as traders expected a breakout higher.

Open interest dropped 7.66% to $8.16 billion while trading volume doubled to $13.37 billion. When OI falls alongside rising volume, it signals forced closures rather than organic selling. Leveraged longs got caught on the wrong side of the move and had no choice but to exit.

The long/short ratio sits at 0.95, showing that sentiment has shifted to a slight short bias. Top traders on Binance remain net long at 3.82, but the broader market has repositioned defensively.

Spot Outflows Add Selling Pressure

Exchange flow data confirms that spot holders are also exiting. Coinglass recorded $2.37 million in net outflows on January 19, adding to the selling pressure from derivatives liquidations.

When both spot and futures markets see distribution at the same time, price typically follows through to the downside. Buyers have not stepped in to absorb the selling, leaving the bid thin as SOL approaches key support levels.

Price Breaks Below The EMA Cluster

SOL Price Action (Source: TradingView)

On the daily chart, Solana traded inside a falling wedge pattern since the September high near $250. The structure suggested a potential bullish resolution, but that thesis required holding above the EMA cluster.

Today’s candle breaks that setup. Price sliced through the 20-day EMA at $137.42 and the 50-day EMA at $137.94 in a single session. The Parabolic SAR flipped bearish at $148.67, confirming that short-term momentum now favors sellers.

Key levels now:

• Immediate resistance: $137.42 to $137.94 (20/50 EMA cluster)
• Major resistance: $148.20 (100 EMA)
• Trend resistance: $159.45 (200 EMA)
• Current support: $130 (wedge lower trendline)
• Breakdown target: $118 to $120

The falling wedge lower boundary near $130 represents the last line of defense for bulls. A daily close below this level invalidates the pattern and opens a measured move toward $118.

RSI Hits Oversold Extremes

Shorter timeframes show the intensity of the selloff. On the 30-minute chart, RSI crashed to 19.13, well below the oversold threshold of 30. Such extreme readings often precede short-term bounces as sellers exhaust themselves.

MACD remains bearish with the histogram expanding to the downside. The sharp drop from $144 to $130 broke horizontal support cleanly, creating a new resistance zone that bulls must reclaim.

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Any bounce attempt faces immediate resistance at $140. That level acted as support for most of the past week before failing today. Reclaiming $140 with conviction would signal that buyers are defending the structure.

Outlook: Will Solana Find Support?

The setup favors caution. Liquidation cascades tend to find temporary bottoms when leverage clears, but the technical damage requires time to repair. Oversold RSI creates bounce potential, but the EMA cluster now acts as resistance.

• Bullish case: A bounce from the wedge lower trendline at $130 reclaims $137 and signals exhaustion selling. Closing above the 50 EMA restores the neutral structure.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $130 breaks the wedge support and targets $118. Losing $118 exposes the next major demand zone near $100.

Solana sits at the lower edge of its multi-month range. The next sessions will determine whether this is a liquidation flush that creates opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.