thecryptobasic.com
XRP has returned to a rare long-term position against Ethereum after breaking above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud.
For context, the Ichimoku Cloud structure has historically limited XRP’s strength relative to ETH, capping XRP’s momentum during bullish uptrends. However, XRP/ETH now sits at a level where the cloud has moved from resistance to a potential support zone, a situation that has occurred only once before in 2021.
Key Points
- XRP currently trades for 0.00061 ETH after a recent two-week decline of just over 6%, while remaining above the Ichimoku Cloud.
- The XRP/ETH pair spent most of 2018 to 2024 below the cloud, with repeated failures to push above it.
- The only previous cloud breakout occurred in early 2021 and failed within a few two-week candles.
- XRP/ETH reached a cycle bottom of 0.0001251 in June 2024 before XRP staged another breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud in November 2024.
- Now, despite a pullback, the XRP/ETH pair is holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, looking to transform it to support.
XRP/ETH Price Development
Matt Hughes, a prominent analyst who calls himself “The Great Mattsby,” called attention to this development in his latest commentary. His analysis focused on the XRP/ETH pair on the two-week timeframe.
The XRP/ETH chart shows XRP trading around 0.00062 ETH at the time of his disclosure, with the latest two-week candle reflecting a decline of just over 6%. Hughes drew attention to the broader trend structure, noting that XRP is attempting to hold above the two-week Ichimoku Cloud, something it has not sustained since 2021.
Historical Structure
Historically, the Ichimoku Cloud has acted as a dominant ceiling for XRP when measured against ETH. From 2016 to early 2018, the pair experienced extreme volatility, including sharp rallies that pushed XRP/ETH above 0.0036 ETH by December 2018 before reversing lower.
However, once the cloud fully formed on the higher timeframe, XRP struggled to reclaim that ground. Between 2018 and 2020, nearly every recovery attempt stalled as the price approached the cloud, with repeated rejections occurring between 0.001 and 0.0036 ETH. During this period, the cloud remained thick and above price.
XRP/ETH Cloud Breakout First Came in 2021
Hughes highlighted 2021 as the only exception. In the first quarter of that year, XRP/ETH broke above the two-week cloud. Nonetheless, the breakout lasted only a handful of two-week candles. The cloud failed to transition into long-term support, and XRP soon fell back below it. By late 2021 and into 2022, the pair resumed its broader downtrend.
From 2022 through mid-2024, XRP/ETH spent an extended period trading beneath a downward-sloping Ichimoku Cloud. During this phase, the cloud repeatedly capped upside attempts at the 0.0004 ETH region. The Kijun-sen remained above the price for long stretches, indicating a persistent bearish structure. This weakness culminated in XRP/ETH bottoming at 0.0001251 in June 2024.
XRP Holds Above the Ichimoku Cloud After Latest Breakout
The bullish development Hughes is now watching began in late 2024. Specifically, XRP/ETH broke above the two-week cloud when it soared from 0.00017 to cross 0.0008 by December 2024, representing a structural change not seen in years.
As 2025 progressed, the cloud ahead thinned noticeably, suggesting reduced resistance. XRP/ETH then advanced to a 5-year peak of 0.00139 by April 2025. However, it’s been downhill since then, with the pair now down 56% from the April 2025 high.
Despite this, the XRP/ETH pair still holds above the Ichimoku Cloud, now retesting the top as support. This places the cloud beneath price rather than overhead, aligning with Hughes’ observation that XRP is attempting to flip the two-week cloud into support. The Tenkan-sen has moved above the Kijun-sen, indicating improving medium-term momentum.