u.today
$XRP may be ready to break free from its February underperformance curse. After years of lagging behind Bitcoin during this season, the $XRP/$BTC pair on TradingView is flashing one of its most promising upside setups in recent memory, with a 50% increase as the target.
On the monthly chart, $XRP just tested and bounced off the midline of the Bollinger band, represented by a 20-month moving average, which is currently near 0.00001988 $BTC. From here, a return to the top band at 0.00003343 $BTC would represent a 55% gain, which is a level that $XRP has not reached since summer 2023.
The last time this pair formed a similar candle structure with a volume breakout and reclaimed the midband, $XRP/$BTC surged 60% in four weeks.
However, February has historically been unfavorable for $XRP. In the last 10 years, the altcoin has beaten Bitcoin in February only once, in 2021, when it surged 122.1%, while Bitcoin barely moved.
Every other year? Losses or underperformance. The median February return for $XRP is -8.12%. Bitcoin's median: +12.2%.
$XRP supercycle theory
Historically, February is when $BTC takes the lead. This makes the current technical setup all the more important. If $XRP breaks this pattern, both technically and seasonally, it could trigger a rotation narrative where funds reallocate from Bitcoin to high-beta majors like $XRP.
If $XRP manages to outperform Bitcoin in February, it will not just be a rare achievement; it could signal the beginning of a significant $XRP/$BTC supercycle, which has not occurred since the 2017-2018 boom.
For now, the setup is there. History says "no." The chart says "maybe." However, if $XRP pulls this off, it will be one of the rarest flips in the cycle, and it begins now.