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A new analysis has outlined a “nightmare scenario” for XRP, projecting how low its price could fall under current market conditions.
While the analysis appears bearish, the prevailing sentiment stresses that the long-term bullish conviction in XRP remains unchanged. In fact, projections suggest prices in the double-digit range.
Key Data Points
- The XRP nightmare scenario suggests a drop to the $1.40–$1.20 range, described as a “maximum fear” scenario.
- The bearish view is not definitive, as XRP’s fundamentals remain strong.
- A deep dip would represent a buying opportunity, not a signal to exit an XRP position.
- In the long term, XRP could reach double-digit prices despite short-term volatility.
The XRP Nightmare Scenario
On Thursday, analyst EGRAG briefly put on a “bearish hat”. Not because he has turned negative on XRP, but to objectively assess the worst-case outcome if the market follows historical patterns.
According to him, XRP’s fundamentals and market structure remain intact, with negativity coming more from sentiment than data.
EGRAG explained that if XRP is moving within a structure similar to past market cycles, history suggests there could still be room for deeper pullbacks before the trend resumes. Based on prior cycles, he highlighted potential drawdowns of around 31% to 47%.
Under this scenario, XRP could revisit a price zone between $1.40 and $1.20. He described this range as the point where “maximum fear” would likely dominate the market, making it the most uncomfortable phase for holders.
However, EGRAG stressed that this is a bear-case scenario, not his base outlook.
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His Conviction Remains Strong
Despite acknowledging the downside risk, EGRAG made it clear that he is not selling XRP based on short-term fractal comparisons. He believes the current bull cycle is dragging and exhausting rather than ending.
From a macro perspective, he said his outlook still points toward double-digit XRP prices over time. More importantly, he noted that a drop into the $1.40–$1.20 zone would represent an opportunity rather than a threat.
EGRAG stated that if XRP reaches that level while he still has liquidity, he would significantly increase his position, calling it “conviction execution” rather than emotional trading.
XRP as a Core Position
The analyst also shared that his strategy is becoming more focused, not more diversified. Instead of chasing multiple narratives across the market, he prefers to concentrate on XRP. He even suggested he could rotate out of other assets, whether in slight profit or moderate loss, to add more XRP.
Based on his past experience in the crypto space, EGRAG described XRP as his safest bet within his current risk framework.
In his words, the approach is not driven by fear or hype, but by positioning and long-term conviction, even when facing the market’s most uncomfortable scenarios.
While EGRAG did not issue a specific bullish XRP price target in this analysis, he has outlined bullish targets on numerous occasions in the past.
Key Fibonacci Levels and Projections
Using Fibonacci levels and channel structures, EGRAG highlighted $2.72 and $3.65 as key resistance zones for XRP in the mid term. His long-term projections suggest potential targets near $16.50, $35, and even $200, based on past expansion phases.
Meanwhile, critics argue that these targets imply unrealistically large market capitalizations, particularly the $200 price level.
Separately, Tokentus CEO Oliver Michel has said XRP could reach $12–$16 if its market share expands, citing ETF momentum and tightening supply.
Grok AI has also floated a $10 target by 2026. YouTuber Mason Versluis has likewise suggested XRP could reach $5, $10, or even $20 in 2026.
At press time, XRP is trading around $2.09, down about 2% over the past day. While some analysts are calling for new all-time highs in 2026, others believe the bull market is already over and that bearish outlooks are becoming more likely.