thecryptobasic.com
Amid the ongoing market uncertainty, the worst-case scenario for XRP points to a further 31% to 47% drawdown, but the market remains bullish.
XRP has continued to hold onto the $2 psychological price mark, but further drawdowns could still play out despite a 43.7% decline from the July 2025 all-time high. Specifically, in its worst-case scenario for this cycle, XRP could drop by another 31% to 47% from the current position.
Such a decline would take XRP to prices of around $1.2 to $1.4. However, the bull market remains intact, and a recovery from such drawdowns could still emerge in the ongoing cycle.
Key Data Points
- After an impressive start to 2025, XRP ended the year with an 11.54% decline on the back of an abysmal fourth quarter.
- While a 12.54% recovery has emerged this year, 2026, XRP still trades 43.7% below the 2025 peak of $3.66.
- Despite this, a 31% to 47% drawdown could still play out in the worst-case scenario, potentially pushing prices to between $1.2 and $1.4.
- However, the bull market remains intact, and a recovery from this drawdown may emerge for XRP.
XRP Still Prone to Further Downside
EGRAG Crypto, a crypto market analyst, revealed this in one of his latest commentaries titled “The Nightmare Scenario vs. Conviction.” The market pundit stressed that for this analysis, he would assume the position of a bear, but only to assess how bad it could get for XRP if things take a turn for the worse.
According to him, for the long term, XRP’s fundamentals are far from bearish, as the bull market remains intact. He argued that only critics would think otherwise. However, while the market still points to a future uptrend, XRP is not immune to short-term price swings, and these swings may lead to further declines.
When such declines emerge, EGRAG suggests that the worst-case scenario for XRP could see the crypto asset drop 31% to 47% from the current position. According to EGRAG, such drawdowns would take XRP to a price range of $1.2 to $1.4. He calls this “the bear case” and “the uncomfortable scenario.”
Historical Context on XRP Drawdowns
Interestingly, EGRAG’s commentary hinges on XRP’s historical data, taking cues from previous cycles when XRP experienced similar downturns. For instance, after the 2018 bull run, XRP recorded a 31% drop to the $0.17 low by December 2019 before recovering to reach $1.96 in April 2021.
Meanwhile, following the $1.96 peak, XRP’s price saw another major decline, dropping 47% to $0.28 by June 2022. This downturn came on the back of the bearish contagion that swept through the crypto market following the Terra ecosystem implosion.
EGRAG’s idea of a 31% to 47% downturn aligns with these historical declines. Nonetheless, he emphasized that this would only play out if XRP currently sits in a structural position similar to these past cycles. Notably, multiple analysts have already suggested that XRP is following the 2017 fractal.
What Next?
Despite the possibility of steeper declines, EGRAG insisted that he remains within the camp of individuals who believe the bull run remains intact, but is currently seeing a drag as it enters its final stage of exhaustion. According to him, XRP’s macro trajectory still leads toward a double-digit price.
EGRAG noted that should the 31% to 47% drawdown play out, he would regard it as an opportunity to load up on his bag. He noted that if he still has liquidity, he will likely double his investment. However, this represents his personal conviction, and investors should not follow this approach based solely on EGRAG’s words.