u.today
One of Cardano's most aggressive derivatives signals in weeks just flashed. In contrast to the otherwise muted activity ADA has displayed during its protracted downtrend, futures flow on the one-hour time frame surged by about 750%. This type of spike typically indicates when positioning changes and volatility awakens. It does not occur at random. The data is simple on the derivatives side.
Cardano's derivatives spike
While longer windows (4h, 8h and 12h) continue to be clearly positive, one-hour futures net inflows surpassed $5 million. This indicates that this is not a bot-driven anomaly or a single rogue candle. Across a variety of time frames, capital is regularly entering ADA futures, which frequently precedes price range expansion — not necessarily an immediate upside but movement.
Additionally, spot flows tend to be positive. Higher-time-frame spot data indicates consistent positive net flows, suggesting accumulation rather than panic buying while short-term spot inflows are modest. This is important because futures-only spikes that do not have spot confirmation usually fade fast. The spot market is cooperating here at least. Metrics related to positioning support the image.
Major venues' long/short ratios are still high, with Binance and OKX both exhibiting a pronounced long bias, particularly among elite traders. Although crowded longs may be penalized, this does not ensure a rally, but it does indicate that market players are getting ready for a directional move as opposed to ongoing stagnation. The weak point is still the price.
Market performance not that great
ADA is still below important moving averages such as the 100 and 200 EMA, and it has not broken out of its wider bearish channel structurally. The market is not yet bullish, to put it another way. On the other hand, it is coiled. Volatility typically follows when futures flows grow so quickly while prices remain compressed.
This derivatives activity may develop into an attempt to reverse the trend if ADA is able to recover its short-term EMAs with volume confirmation. If not, a violent shakeout could be sparked by the same accumulation of leverage.