Bitcoin rises, oil falls as global tensions ease: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$96,613.70 climbed almost 2% in 24 hours, passing $97,000 as investors’ risk appetite grew and it broke through a level that had held for two months.

“Bitcoin has been lagging behind the equity market and precious metal rally, but it has finally pushed through the $95k level that capped rallies since November,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote. “With potentially further fiat currency debasement in the US, which has been driving precious metals higher, the relative cheapness of Bitcoin relative to precious metals at this point may spur a rotation to digital assets.”

The broader market also rose. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 1% in the same period. The renewed risk appetite is also visible in the spot ETF market, with U.S. bitcoin funds bringing in $843 million in net inflows yesterday and the ETH ETFs adding $175 million.

That’s despite an uncertain geopolitical environment. President Donald Trump has been pushing for the country’s control of Greenland, a territory of Denmark, describing it as “vital” for national security. Tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies have risen as a result.

The market may be dismissing the scenario of a NATO collapse, and the oil market appears to show geopolitical risks are indeed easing. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 4.4% to $59 after Trump said the “killing has stopped,” referring to protests in Iran that had the U.S. weighing military action on the country.

Still, regulatory developments in the U.S. are adding friction. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee delayed its markup of the its crypto market structure bill. Coinbase pulled support for it as Wall Street bankers keep on lobbying against crypto yield.

The delay triggered a brief pullback in crypto markets, but didn’t derail the broader rally. Ether underperformed bitcoin's advance, rising 1.5%, while privacy-focused tokens outperformed. Zcash ZEC$441.44 rose 5.1% and dash DASH$81.88 2.4% in the same period.

Looking ahead, the pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs or geopolitical escalation could trigger risk-off sentiment. Yet for now, the market has flipped to “greed” for the first time in three months. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Jan. 15 (est.): RVN$0.007639 second block‑reward halving at block 4,200,000, cutting the mining reward to 1,250 RVN per block.
  • Jan. 15: U.S. Senate Banking Committee markup on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
• Macro
  • Jan. 15, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Jobless Claims. Initial (for week ended Jan. 10) (Prev. 208K); Continuing (for week ended Jan. 3) (Prev. 1914K).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • CoW DAO is voting to renew its grants program for 2026, allocating 500,000 xDAI and remaining COW reserves. Voting ends Jan. 15.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 15: CONX$16.40 to unlock 1.59% of its circulating supply worth $21.16 million.
  • Jan. 15: STRK$0.08641 to unlock 4.83% of its circulating supply worth $10.6 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 15: KUBChain’s inaugural KUB token burn occurs.
  • Jan. 15: HTX DAO to conduct its scheduled token burn.
  • Jan. 15: Mantra’s OM migration period to the MANTRA Chain ends.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: Web 3.0 Expo Dubai Edition (UAE)

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $96,711.33 (24hrs: +1.98%)
• ETH is down 1.23% at $3,356.79 (24hrs: +1.92%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.97% at 3,048.78 (24hrs: +1.04%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0003% (-0.1237% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 99.14
• Gold futures are down 0.29% at $4,622.20
• Silver futures are down 0.52% at $90.91
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.42% at 54,110.50
• Hang Seng closed down 0.28% at 26,923.62
• FTSE is up 0.55% at 10,240.60
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.50% at 6,034.83
• DJIA closed on Wednesday little changed at 49,149.63
• S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 6,926.60
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.00% at 23,471.75
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.14% at 32,916.47
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.17% at 3.326,32
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up NA bps at 4.14%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% at 6,990.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.74% at 25,820.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.11% at 49,412.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.7% (0.17%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03471 (0.29%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 999 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $41.83
• Total fees: 3.07 BTC / $294,966
• CME Futures Open Interest: 123,715 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 21 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.49%

Technical Analysis

• BTC/USD is showing a strong trend-continuation setup on the weekly chart, driven by a bullish divergence that suggests the macro uptrend remains intact.
• With the price successfully breaking above $90,000, the critical focus now is a weekly close above the 50-week exponential moving average (orange line) to confirm the resumption of the bull market.
• Sustained momentum above this level sets a clear path toward the $100,000 resistance zone, which marks the next major Fibonacci hurdle.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $255.86 (+1.25%), –0.88% at $253.61 in pre-market
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $84.80 (+1.61%), -0.68% at $84.23
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.19 (+5.11%), +0.18% at $28.24
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.66 (+2.53%), –0.40% at $39.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.11 (+1.46%), unchanged in pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.31 (+3.34%), +0.46% at $17.39
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.92 (–0.61%), +0.73% at $18.05
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.34 (+6.29%), +0.30% at $13.38
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $48.94 (+0.14%), unchanged in pre-market
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $18.40 (+1.66%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $179.33 (+3.66%), +1.32% at $181.70
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $21.37 (+5.06%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.88 (+3.23%), +0.28% at $10.91
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.46 (+6.49%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.55 (+4.03%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $840.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $58.1 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $175.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.11 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump says he has no plan to fire Fed's Powell despite investigation (Reuters): President Trump said he has “no plan” to fire Fed Chair Powell despite a Department of Justice probe, easing concerns over central bank independence as markets eye the Fed’s role in managing inflation and economic stability.
• NCAA urges CFTC to pause college sports prediction markets (CoinDesk): The governing body for U.S. college sports asked the CFTC to halt college sports-related prediction markets until a more robust system is in place, citing risks to student athletes, consumers and competition integrity.
• Bitcoin bull case grows as U.S. bond market volatility sinks to lowest since 2021 (CoinDesk): Bitcoin's 10% rally in January has analysts predicting the largest cryptocurrency will break the $100,000 mark for the first time since November. The forecast gains credence as U.S. Treasury bonds’ volatility is at its lowest since 2021.
• Oil drops after Trump dials down Iran Tensions (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. stocks rose Monday, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high, lifted by strong bank earnings, cooling inflation data, as President Trump moved to ease tensions with Iran, which helped calm broader market jitters.