Why Has the Anticipated Major Altcoin Season Not Arrived? Expert Analysts Explain Everything

In the cryptocurrency market, altcoins are facing a significant capital outflow amidst a growing risk-aversion trend.

Low market cap tokens, which once stood out with their high-yield expectations, can now only attract investor interest for a short time. According to an over-the-counter (OTC) crypto trading report published by market maker Wintermute, the average upward trend in altcoins in 2025 was limited to just 20 days. This period varied between 40 and 60 days in previous years.

According to the report, open positions in altcoin futures have fallen by 55 percent since October, leading to the closure of over $40 billion in positions. Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, stated that this trend stems not only from declining excitement but also from individual investors redirecting speculative capital to other areas. Ostrovskis said that investors are now preferring larger and more mature crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, while betting on macroeconomic developments.

In the cryptocurrency market, macroeconomic factors have been the main determinant of price movements recently. US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding tariffs and expectations of interest rate cuts caused sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin. While the market experienced strong sell-offs following the tariff announcements in April and October of last year, the currency depreciation trend played a role in Bitcoin’s rise to its all-time high in October.

Cosmo Jiang, a general partner at Pantera Capital Management, argued that the overall market outlook remains weak. Jiang stated, “By most indicators, the market is still volatile and bearish. Bitcoin needs to lead the way for a healthy recovery.”

On the other hand, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index reveals that crypto assets outside the top 10 by market capitalization have significantly underperformed compared to major tokens in the last 90 days. Altcoin investors were particularly hard hit during the sharp sell-off in October, with $19 billion wiped from digital assets in a single day, and a strong recovery has not been seen since.

Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere said that altcoin liquidity has remained stagnant and capital is shifting in different directions in search of new speculative areas. De Maere recalled that in 2021, crypto was the primary area of speculation, but today, individual investor interest has shifted towards themes such as space, quantum physics, robotics, and artificial intelligence within the stock market.

*This is not investment advice.