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Recent data suggests XRP now sits at a unique point in history as the Russell 2000 and precious metals like gold and silver reach new highs.
According to a recent analysis from Bird, an XRP community pundit and market commentator, XRP may be sitting at a unique point in history, considering the recent performance of the market index Russell 2000 (RUT).
The analysis confirms that the Russell 2000 has hit new heights, a trend that often leads to an increase in the XRP price. While the stock index has already laid the foundation, Bird stressed that XRP’s inability to follow through with a rally now is largely attributable to the recent performance of precious metals.
For context, gold and silver, the two largest precious metals, recently claimed new all-time highs amid an influx of capital. Bird believes XRP could follow the Russell 2000 index on its uptrend once gold and silver start trading sideways, as capital rotates from precious metals to crypto.
Key Data Points
- After dropping to a low of 1,732 points in April 2025, the Russell 2000 index (RUT) has continued to rise.
- Amid this uptick, RUT hit a new all-time high of 2,636 points this month, January 2026.
- The index has held strong despite resistance at the new peak, currently trading at 2,635 points.
- Its current position represents a 52% increase from the 1,732 low in April 2025.
- While XRP currently trades for $2.05, up 12% this year, Bird believes the altcoin could rise higher.
- According to Bird, once capital rotates from precious metals to crypto, and XRP recovers $2.70, the uptrend could start.
Why XRP Could See an Uptick
The Russell 2000 is an index that tracks the 2,000 smallest U.S. stocks by market cap. When it hits new highs, it shows strong risk appetite across U.S. markets. Small-cap stocks tend to rally when investors feel confident about the economy and are willing to take on more speculative positions.
This same change in market sentiment usually spills into crypto, especially coins outside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Notably, XRP benefits from this because traders rotate into higher-beta assets once stocks perform well. Essentially, institutions and retail traders tend to treat crypto as a continuation of the same “risk-on” force driving the Russell 2000.
Historical Data
Bird’s confidence in this pattern hinges on historical data surrounding the relationship between the Russell 2000 index and XRP’s price action. This pattern played out in 2016-2018, 2020-2021, and late 2024.
Specifically, following a crash to 943 points in February 2016, the Russell 2000 index began a recovery push that led to new ATHs. By January 2018, the index had risen 71% to a peak of 1,615. XRP followed through with a 55,000% increase from 0.006 in February 2017 to $3.31 by January 2018.
This pattern emerged again in the 2020/2021 market cycle, as RUT rebounded from a low of 966 points in March 2020 to a new all-time high of 2,360 points by March 2021. In response, XRP’s price rose 716% from $0.24 in October 2020 to $1.96 in April 2021.
Interestingly, the last time this correlation structure played out was after Donald Trump’s victory in the latest U.S. elections. When President Trump won in November 2024, the Russell 2000 rose 10.84% that month. XRP followed with a 284% spike within the same period.
Important Caveat to Note
If this pattern continues, the surge from the Russell 2000 index since May 2025 could spill into XRP soon. However, it is important to note that this is not a direct cause-and-effect relationship. The market has witnessed periods when RUT surged, but XRP failed to replicate the uptrend.