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Market analyst Matt Hughes has called the public’s attention to a potential XRP move that could lead the altcoin to outperform Bitcoin.
Specifically, he believes XRP is close to breaking above the monthly Ichimoku Cloud against Bitcoin, a level it has not reclaimed since 2018. Notably, a confirmed move above this level would indicate a potential bullish change in XRP’s long-term performance against BTC.
Currently, the XRP/BTC pair trades at 0.00002501. At this level, the price sits directly beneath the Ichimoku Cloud, which has acted as strong resistance for nearly eight years. Hughes argues that crossing this barrier would open the door for XRP to outperform Bitcoin over a longer period.
Data from his chart confirms why analysts regard this level as extremely important. Notably, the XRP price traded without a clear trend against BTC from 2015 to 2016. During this time, it continued to move below the Ichimoku Cloud.
Last Time XRP Broke Above the Ichimoku Cloud
However, this phase ended in early 2017 when XRP broke decisively above the cloud. The breakout triggered a sharp rally that pushed the pair from around 0.00002 BTC to a peak of 0.00023 BTC in January, as XRP claimed $3.31. During this run, XRP stayed well above the cloud, outperforming Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, the trend reversed after the 2018 peak. Specifically, XRP/BTC fell back into the cloud and then dropped below it, confirming a long-term change in momentum.
From 2018 through 2020, the pair declined from above 0.0002 BTC to 0.0000065 BTC. The Ichimoku Cloud turned bearish, and each recovery attempt failed below major resistance levels, leaving Bitcoin in control.
Between 2021 and 2023, XRP/BTC moved sideways but remained below the cloud. The price mostly ranged between 0.000006 and 0.00003 BTC. Even during the 2021 bull market, XRP failed to reclaim the cloud, confirming its continued underperformance against Bitcoin, especially amid the SEC lawsuit.
Conditions began to improve in the second half of 2024 after a sustained crash from August 2023 to June 2024. Following the November 2024 spike, the XRP/BTC pair formed higher lows, while the Ichimoku Cloud began flattening. Specifically, price started pressing into the cloud instead of pulling away from it, indicating fading downside pressure.
XRP Now Eyeing Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Against Bitcoin
While the trend shift carried into late 2025, the bearish market conditions from Q4 2025 halted XRP’s campaign. Now, as XRP posts a 27% rise in 2026, outperforming the broader market, the XRP/BTC pair now trades at the lower edge of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud near 0.000025 BTC.
Notably, the cloud structure looks weaker than it has in years, which Hughes says closely mirrors the setup seen before the 2017 breakout. Hughes believes a monthly close above the Ichimoku Cloud would confirm a major trend change and end a seven-year period of XRP underperformance.
For context, such a move would not necessarily require Bitcoin to fall, but it would suggest that XRP could begin rising faster than BTC. If XRP reclaimed the 2018 peak of 0.00023 BTC with Bitcoin trading for $93,000 today, XRP’s price could hit $21.39. However, John Bollinger believes XRP’s trend within the Bollinger Bands is weaker than Bitcoin’s.