thecryptobasic.com
Bitcoin fourth quarter has indeed turned out to be “unbelievable,” but not in the way many investors expected.
Since Eric Trump publicly predicted an explosive Q4 for crypto, Bitcoin has suffered one of its worst year-end performances in nearly a decade. This has stirred intense criticism across the crypto community.
From Q4 Optimism to a Deep Market Reversal
Back in September, Eric Trump expressed strong confidence that the final quarter of the year would be extraordinary for cryptocurrencies. His optimism rested on historical trends, expectations of looser monetary policy, and expanding institutional access to Bitcoin.
However, market reality moved in the opposite direction. Since Bitcoin peaked in October, the asset has dropped roughly 32% from its Q4 high to its recent low.
With just days left in the quarter, Q4 2025 is now shaping up to be Bitcoin’s worst fourth quarter since the 2018 bear market.
Brutal Q4 by the Numbers
Data from market trackers highlights the severity of the downturn:
- Bitcoin is down more than 22% in Q4 2025
- The price has fallen over 30% from its October peak of $126,200
- More than $1 trillion evaporated from the total crypto market
- Altcoin market saw its capitalization cut in half
This performance contrasts with Bitcoin’s historical Q4 averages, which have typically delivered strong gains.
Liquidations, Leverage Flush, and Vanishing Confidence
Notably, the downturn accelerated in October when the market experienced one of the largest leverage flushes in recent history, with roughly $19 billion in liquidations. As leveraged positions were wiped out, funding rates collapsed, and bullish sentiment evaporated.
In November, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index crashed to 10, its lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Since then, the market has failed to recover meaningfully.
Bitcoin dipped to $80,600, its lowest point so far this Q4. It currently hovers around $88,000, showing weak performance as bears and bulls engage in a tug-of-war below the $90,000 level.
Community Reaction
Given the current market position, crypto commentators have pointed out the irony. While Q4 was indeed “unbelievable,” many argue it serves as a reminder not to treat political figures as reliable market forecasters.
It is also worth mentioning that Eric Trump was not the only prominent figure predicting an explosive Q4. Many commentators, including Tom Lee, Standard Chartered, and Bernstein, originally forecast Bitcoin prices between $150,000 and $200,000 in Q4. These projections have since been revised, with expectations pushed out to 2026.
History Suggests a Possible Rebound Ahead
Despite the grim quarter, historical patterns offer some hope. Previous weak Q4 performances, including in 2018 and 2022, were followed by strong recoveries in subsequent quarters. In some cases, early losses paved the way for explosive multi-quarter rallies.
Looking ahead to 2026, major institutions remain optimistic. Citibank and Bernstein analysts still project Bitcoin reaching between $150,000 and $189,000 under bullish scenarios. This suggests that long-term conviction has not disappeared, even after an “unbelievable” Q4 for all the wrong reasons.