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XRP recently retested a crucial exponential moving average (EMA), reminiscent of its price behavior before the explosive surge in late 2017.
JD, a well-known market commentator, recently highlighted the latest occurrence amid the ongoing price downtrend. Specifically, after a slight recovery to $2.8 in September 2025, XRP collapsed alongside the broader market in October 2025, and this downward push has persisted into December.
Notably, since October, XRP has declined nearly 35%, currently changing hands at $1.86. However, JD found that this decline may have been forming the foundation for an explosive surge. According to him, amid the downtrend, XRP has retested the pivotal support at the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA).
XRP’s Historical Retest of the 21EMA
Importantly, whenever XRP retests the support at this moving average, the resulting move is an explosive rally to new heights. Data from JD’s chart shows that one of the first instances of this pattern emerged in December 2017.
Specifically, after the initial rally from $0.00555 in March 2017 to $0.3988 in May of that year, XRP entered a consolidation phase, dropping to $0.1977 by December 2017. Interestingly, this drop coincided with a retest of the 21 EMA support. What followed was another impressive upsurge, pushing XRP to the $3.31 peak in January 2018. This marked a 1,573% rise from the $0.1977 low.
Notably, this pattern also played out in the current market cycle. Amid XRP’s consolidation between $0.4 and $0.6 for most of 2024, the crypto asset eventually retested and slipped below the 21 EMA in October 2024. Shortly after this, XRP exploded on the back of the November 2024 U.S. elections, soaring to $3.4 by January 2025.
XRP Retests the 21EMA Again
However, the correction that followed has kept XRP in a bearish position for most of 2025, with occasional swings to prices such as $3.66 in July. Nonetheless, despite the bearish pressure throughout 2025, XRP remained above the 21-month EMA until the recent downtrend. With XRP now trading below $2, it has retested this crucial moving average.
From here, JD expects another explosive surge to greater heights and then a subsequent collapse, but he chose not to present any price predictions. For perspective, if XRP even replicated half of its December 2017 rise, it would surge 786% from the current price. Notably, this would result in a price of $16.5, representing a new all-time high. However, this remains highly speculative.
Meanwhile, Skipper, an XRP community analyst, also spotlighted a pattern that could point to an imminent XRP run. He found that XRP has always witnessed discouraging price action for at least 120 days before an eventual explosive surge. This happened in 2016 and then in 2024. The analyst noted that the exact pattern seems to be playing out again.
