crypto.news
Ripple’s $XRP has traded below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 70 days, a technical level that preceded significant price increases in previous market cycles, according to cryptocurrency analysts.
- Analysts are split, with some pointing to $XRP historical patterns and fractal models suggesting a potential rally window into mid-to-late 2026.
- Others warn of a sharp correction if key levels fail.
- Rising exchange inflows and mixed technical signals suggest growing selling pressure, keeping near-term price action uncertain.
Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has documented this pattern across three previous cycles. In 2017, $XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before climbing more than 200%, according to the analyst’s data. In 2021, a 49-day period below the same level preceded a 70% gain.
In 2024, after 84 days below the SMA, $XRP rose more than 850%, the analyst stated.
The token has now completed a 70-day period under the SMA, with no breakout confirmed, according to the analyst’s chart data.
Steph Is Crypto noted that $XRP’s current 2025 chart pattern resembles earlier formations from 2016 and 2024. In both years, the price followed a three-wave correction pattern lasting 120 to 150 days before breaking out, the analyst reported. The 2025 chart shows a similar structure, now reaching 150 days, characterized by sideways price action and low trading volume.
Every cycle, when $XRP breaks below the 50-week SMA and stays there for roughly 50–84 days, a strong rally has followed.
— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) December 29, 2025
History:
– 2017: 70 days below → +211%
– 2021: 49 days below → +70%
– 2024: 84 days below → +850% – Now: 70 days below the 50-week SMA… pic.twitter.com/aDZ7Lqoaw6
Analyst Egrag Crypto has published a fractal model that tracks $XRP’s price behavior with approximately 82% accuracy, according to the analyst’s statements.
The model includes a range of potential price levels dependent on $XRP continuing to follow the historical path. The analyst stated that a break below certain lower bounds would weaken or invalidate the model, and specified a time range for possible price expansion between June and October 2026.
#$XRP – Fractal Reality Check (UPDATE) 🔍:
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) December 29, 2025
🏳️This is the “White Fractal.”
Right now, this structure is behaving more realistically, so I am treating it as an evolving model, not a guarantee.
🏳️If it keeps tracking, I’ll upgrade it:
🔵 Blue Fractal → when alignment strengthens… https://t.co/8TDmvYsYHh pic.twitter.com/jvUfQYFl9N
Analyst CryptoWZRD stated that the price needs to remain above a key level to maintain bullish territory, and identified nearby support and resistance points.
$XRP Daily Technical Outlook:$XRP closed indecisively with Bitcoin in complete control. I expect similar price action tomorrow. Holding above $1.9750 is bullish territory. Below that, we will see more sideways and random volatility ahead of the Yearly transition 😈 pic.twitter.com/LVEFxk9Sxa
— CRYPTOWZRD (@cryptoWZRD_) December 30, 2025
Analyst Ali Martinez raised concerns about a potential short-term correction, warning that $XRP could decline more than 55% if certain technical levels fail. Martinez pointed to technical indicators that could signal a path toward lower prices if the token continues to face rejection near key resistance levels.
Here’s why $XRP could be at risk of a drop to $0.80.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) December 29, 2025
🧵⬇️
Binance reportedly accounts for the largest share of $XRP trading volume. Higher exchange inflows are often interpreted by market observers as an indication that traders may be preparing to sell.