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After a prolonged bleed, Shiba Inu is printing a clean green candle, something it has not done in a long time. That does not reverse the trend on its own, but even a slight shift in direction counts on a market this worn out. The first clear green close is at least an indication that selling pressure is no longer one-sided, as SHIB has been grinding lower for weeks with no follow-through on bounces.
Downtrend never disappears
SHIB continues to be steadily declining over the longer time frame. The long-term structure has not been recovered, and the price is still below all significant moving averages. However, momentum appears to be stretched.
RSI has been in the vicinity of oversold territory for an extended amount of time, which typically occurs close to late-stage downtrends rather than at the start. This implies that a drawback might be a decrease in efficiency. Although there are still sellers, they are no longer aggressively lowering prices.
Shiba Inu needs more
A series of lower lows and tight consolidation preceded the recent green candle, which is frequently a setup for a reaction move. A slight increase in volume suggests that buyers are at least exploring the downside. This indicates that SHIB is no longer entirely disregarded, but it does not imply conviction just yet.
From this point on, there are some plausible possibilities. The conservative bounce scenario is the first. SHIB is still targeting short-term moving averages and nearby resistance as it grinds sideways to slightly higher. This would be a relief action rather than a reversal. Before sellers intervene again, the price might slightly retrace. If the overall state of the market remains neutral, that is the most likely outcome.
A failed bounce is the second scenario. The price stalls due to resistance, the green candle turns out to be a liquidity grab and SHIB starts its downward trend again. It is impossible to rule out this result, given the daily charts predominant bearish pattern. If momentum wanes quickly, the market may suddenly reverse course.
A base formation is the third, less probable but noteworthy, scenario. A longer accumulation phase may start if SHIB is able to maintain this level, print higher lows on the short time frame and gradually regain key averages. Just stabilization, not a breakout or a hype cycle.