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Analyst Chad Steingraber believes XRP is on the verge of a breakout that could outperform Bitcoin’s post-ETF performance by several multiples.
In a recent analysis, Steingraber pointed out that Bitcoin also struggled immediately after its spot ETFs launched in January 2024, dipping before beginning one of its strongest rallies in history.
Looking at Bitcoin’s History
Historical data confirms that Bitcoin fell from around $48,000 to $38,500 on the day the SEC approved ETFs. The price action remained subdued for a few weeks around the $40,000 level. By February 2024, Bitcoin had reached a historic price of $63,900 — the first instance since the 2021 peak.
The momentum continued into the next month. In March 2024, Bitcoin rose above $73,700, marking an all-time high at the time due to massive institutional inflows. This performance was particularly remarkable as BTC reached a new peak before the April 2024 halving.
The bull momentum carried Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of 2024, though periodic corrections occurred. From the January 2024 low of $38,500 to the $108,268 peak by December, Bitcoin staged roughly a 3X surge.
Meanwhile, Steingraber argues that XRP has the potential to outperform this trajectory. If XRP is able to surge 5x after ETFs, outperforming the 3X bitcoin surge after ETFs, then XRP would trade around $10.
Why Steingraber Expects XRP to Outshine Bitcoin
According to his assessment, the current negativity surrounding XRP’s price is almost identical to Bitcoin’s mood after its ETF approval. XRP ETFs launched in November 2025, and the market response has so far been disappointing. Over the last 30 days, XRP is down 16%, and over the past eight weeks, it has lost 22%.
Despite the bearish charts, institutional appetite tells a different story. XRP ETFs have now recorded consistent inflows, reaching $976 million, just shy of the $1 billion milestone.
Steingraber believes these inflows are laying the foundation for a dramatic turnaround, similar to Bitcoin’s V-shaped recovery in early 2024. In his words, XRP will “do multiple times better than this.”
Price Action Still Lagging, But Momentum Is Building
Since the ETFs went live, XRP has dropped from $2.50 to a low of $1.80. It has recovered slightly and currently trades around $2.04. For many investors, the question has been why nearly $1 billion in inflows has not translated into immediate upside.
Steingraber’s answer: patience. Bitcoin needed a few weeks to shift from fear to frenzy after its ETF launch. To him, XRP is following the same path, only with greater potential upside once the inflows fully translate into market impact.
Notably, industry leaders like Fabio Marzella have explained that the reason XRP is not currently reflecting ETF inflows is due to issuers’ accumulation via OTC channels. Marzella noted that the price impact will become visible over time, and when the accumulations occur via crypto exchanges.
As long as ETFs source XRP from OTC desks, there will be limited price impact until real scarcity sets in. Interestingly, Steingraber previously projected that ETFs could absorb half of XRP’s supply within a year, potentially triggering a supply shock.
Currently, four XRP ETFs are registering daily inflows: Canary Capital, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin. Soon to join are 21Shares and WisdomTree.
As XRP ETF adoption accelerates and inflows approach the $1 billion mark, analysts like Steingraber believe the market may be underestimating how quickly sentiment and price could shift.