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XRP has faced bearish pressure of late, but market analyst Chart Nerd believes it may only be repeating the 2017 fractal that previously led to a 7,000%+ rally.
Notably, market conditions have worked against XRP and other crypto assets. Since October, the global crypto market has declined by about $720 billion, with XRP responsible for $47.39 billion of this drop. The token has retreated by about 28.5% during this timeframe, currently trading for $2.03.
XRP’s Historical Structure
However, Chart Nerd’s recent analysis suggests that this downtrend may only be part of a larger bullish trend as XRP appears to be trailing its 2017 fractal. Interestingly, during the 2017 price action, XRP witnessed a similar bearish phase but eventually recovered, soaring by 7,425% by the time its rally concluded.
Specifically, the earlier structure began in 2016, when XRP’s price rose to a high of $0.00864 in February of that year, marking the end of Wave 1 within a multi-phase structure. The second wave culminated in a drop to $0.00587 by May 2016, with Wave 3 leading to a recovery to $0.00940 in October 2016.
After this peak, XRP collapsed to a low of $0.0053 by late February 2017, which ended the fourth wave. However, the rebound that ensued was nothing short of explosive. Notably, the altcoin shot up to a peak of $0.3988 by May 2017. Data from the accompanying chart indicated that this run resulted in a 7,452% increase.
XRP Now Following Similar Trend
Interestingly, XRP now appears to be following the exact same structure. For context, the token’s rally to $3.4 in January 2025 marked the end of Wave 1 in the latest multi-phase structure. Wave 2 led to a drop to the $1.61 low in April 2025. When XRP recovered from this bottom, it shot up to the $3.66 peak in July 2025, marking the end of Wave 3.
Now, the chart indicates that XRP currently trades within the corrective Wave 4 amid the ongoing price struggles since July. If history repeats, the crypto asset may be on the verge of completing Wave 4, with the next phase leading to an explosive surge.
“This Structure is Uncanny”
“This structure is uncanny,” Chart Nerd said, highlighting the similarities between both periods. However, the market analyst noted that the only difference between them is the positioning of the market. Specifically, the 2016/2017 pattern began in a bear market and slipped into the start of a bull run, but the 2025 structure started in a bull market.
Chart Nerd confirmed that he was “patiently waiting,” possibly to see how the next phase plays out. Notably, a similar 7,452% rally could lead to a price peak of $153 for XRP. However, this is unlikely to be the case due to XRP’s higher market cap today, which would demand greater capital influx for such a surge. Meanwhile, even if XRP replicated 1/8 of the 2017 rally, its price would still reach $19.