coindesk.com
The debut arrives during a period of shifting on-chain dynamics: whale wallets holding 10–100 million $DOGE distributed nearly 7 billion tokens over the past month, a major contributor to $DOGE’s decline from $0.27.
News Background
Grayscale’s Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) officially began trading on NYSE Arca following regulatory approval, marking a significant step in bringing $DOGE into the fully regulated ETF landscape. ETF analysts characterized the launch as another major inflection point for memecoin legitimacy, with early volume estimates near $11 million.
However, the pace of distribution has slowed meaningfully in the past week, hinting at early stabilization as ETF-driven institutional participation begins to appear.
Technical Analysis
$DOGE’s chart structure flipped bullish as the token broke decisively through $0.148 resistance on exceptional volume. The breakout aligned with a clean MACD bullish crossover on the 4-hour timeframe—a signal that historically precedes multi-session continuation phases for $DOGE.
Price action also confirmed an emerging bullish divergence on RSI, indicating sellers are losing strength even as the asset prints higher lows. The TD Sequential system triggered a new buy setup, a pattern that previously fueled triple-digit extensions during 2021 and early 2024.
The combination of rising volume, improving momentum indicators, and ETF-driven liquidity suggests $DOGE’s downtrend may be shifting into a broader accumulation range, though overhead resistance layers remain thick due to prior whale distribution.
Price Action Summary
$DOGE rallied from $0.1466 to $0.1538 in the latest 24-hour session, with intraday volume surging 94% above the weekly average to 686.4M tokens. The strongest move occurred during the afternoon window, when $DOGE advanced from $0.1478 to $0.1523 in one hour before accelerating into a peak of $0.1540 on a 26.6M volume spike.
Support levels strengthened at $0.1440–$0.1450, where buyers repeatedly stepped in ahead of the ETF debut. The session closed with $DOGE holding above $0.153 despite minor late-session volatility, reinforcing the validity of the breakout.
What Traders Should Know
$DOGE now sits at a pivotal point where ETF momentum supports a move toward $0.163, but residual whale supply could cap upside if buying pressure weakens. The $0.154 zone serves as immediate resistance that must convert into support for continuation.
A failure back below $0.148 would signal the breakout was short-lived, exposing a return to $0.144 and potentially deeper retracements if ETF flows taper off.
If momentum holds, the next major level to watch is $0.185, where a larger trend reversal would begin to form.