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The $XRP price is up about 2.3% in the past 24 hours and has trimmed its weekly losses to under 7%. The bounce looks healthy at first glance, especially after the bottoming signs we tracked earlier this week. But the structure behind this bounce hasn’t improved enough.
A critical risk is back on the table — a setup that could push the $XRP price down by over 13%.
Momentum Improves, but Volume and Supply Pressure Compete
$XRP’s short-term strength starts with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV shows whether real volume is entering or leaving the market. $XRP’s OBV has finally moved above its short trend line, hinting that buyers are returning.
But this move carries a warning. OBV tried the same breakout on November 18 and failed. That failure triggered a 19% drop between November 18 and November 21.
The latest push above the line is only marginal, not a clean breakout. If it slips again, the same pattern could repeat.
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$XRP Faces Trendline Risk">
There is also supply pressure overhead. The cost-basis heatmap shows a dense cluster between $2.16 and $2.17, where roughly 1.36 billion $XRP sits, worth almost $2.86 billion. These holders sit near breakeven and often sell into small recoveries.
If OBV weakens while the $XRP price faces this supply zone, the bounce can fade quickly.
Still, OBV moving higher is one of the few positives for now. A decisive break above 6.93 billion on the OBV chart would confirm stronger volume support and improve $XRP’s odds of clearing resistance.
$XRP Price Action: The Unlucky 13% Risk Still Hangs Over $XRP
Even with a mild recovery, the $XRP price still trades under the major moving averages. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA are both angled down, and the 100-day is now about to cross below the 200-day.
An exponential moving average gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than a simple moving average. When the 100-day EMA drops under the 200-day EMA, a bearish crossover forms. And it can amplify the downside.
This is the core risk for $XRP right now. If the crossover completes, the $XRP price could slide toward $1.81, which is the same bottoming zone the recent candles have pointed to. That would be a 13% dip from the current levels. If sellers stay active while the crossover forms, $XRP could easily revisit that level. Even the previous OBV breakout failure amplifies the risk of a similar $XRP price drop.
$XRP Price Analysis">
There is one way out, though!
A clean daily close above $2.25 would weaken the crossover setup. That move would also show buyers breaking through the $2.16–$2.17 supply wall, where about 1.36 billion $XRP sit. Holding above $2.25 would allow the 100-day EMA to curl upward again and reduce the crossover impact.
Until that happens, the bearish EMA structure keeps the 13% $XRP price downside threat alive, even with OBV turning up.
The post $XRP Price Bounces, But One “Unlucky 13″% Threat Still Lingers appeared first on BeInCrypto.