coindesk.com
Bitcoin $BTC$95,898.84 and ether $ETH$3,217.70 remain in bearish territory after a bruising weekend took both assets to multimonth lows of $93,400 and $3,050.
The sell-off acted as confirmation of a downtrend with a series of lower highs and lower lows now being present across several timeframes.
If $BTC falls to $92,840, that would trigger a $62 million pocket of liquidations, which would likely bring the price tumbling to around $87,500 — a level of support that dates back to March.
The backdrop behind the recent plunge has been a shift in expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cutting cycle, with odds now standing at 50% for a reduction in December.
Cutting rates is seen as favorable to risk assets like bitcoin and ether as it makes holding the dollar less profitable.
Derivatives positioning
- Capital continues to leave the crypto market as indicated by the continued slide in open interest (OI) in futures tied to most major tokens, including $BTC and $ETH, in the past 24 hours.
- OI in $ZEC and LTC futures has dropped by over 6% and 10%, respectively.
- XRP and ADA are the only coins with an OI increase of just over 1% in 24 hours.
- The Deribit-listed $BTC options market continues to show a bias for puts, reflecting a downside outlook, with volatility at the front-end climbing above an annualized 50%. $ETH options also display a bearish mood.
- $BTC iron condor and strangle strategies dominated block flows on Deribit. In $ETH's case, call calendar spreads accounted for over 50% of the flow.
Token talk
- The altcoin market has been subdued over the past 24 hours after a violent sell-off on Friday extended into the weekend.
- Several of the larger tokens staged muted recoveries on Sunday, paving the way to marginal gains over 24 hours , although most remain down by more than 10% over the past week.
- An absence of liquidity spurred last week's drawdown, resulting in inflated moves to the downside. Solana SOL$142.61 dropped to a five-month low of $135 while ether $ETH$3,217.70 traded a tick above $3,000, eroding all gains since July.
- Even privacy coins have cooled despite a monthslong rally that saw zcash $ZEC$683.99 rocket to $670 from $41.
- The bearish price action across the altcoin market is demonstrated by the fear and greed index, which is flashing "extreme fear" at 17/100, its lowest since April.
- CoinGlass's average relative strength index (RSI) indicator is in the neutral zone at 43.52/100, suggesting that the market is not quite in oversold territory despite most tokens suffering losses over the past month.