coinpedia.org
The launch of the first $XRP spot ETF on Nasdaq created major excitement, but instead of rising, $XRP dropped around 8%, surprising investors who expected an instant rally. New data shows that while the inflows were impressive for day one, the amount was still too small to move a $138B market cap asset like $XRP.
$245M Inflows Were Not Enough To Lift Price
The first ETF recorded approximately $245M in inflows and almost $60M in trading volume on launch day. While this set a record for a new $XRP product, it represents under 1% of $XRP’s total market value.
This means the inflows were not powerful enough to create demand pressure, so the price fell nearly 8% as traders took profit and hype cooled.
ETF Buying Did Not Hit Public Order Books
Many assumed that ETF inflows would instantly remove $XRP from exchanges. However, current structure shows ETF inflows do not always equal direct spot buying, which means they do not instantly push price up.
Analysts estimate that for a meaningful price breakout, $XRP may need 10x to 15x larger inflows, equal to $3B to $5B in a single day.
Liquidity Levels Show Why Price Did Not Move
Data from major exchanges shows approximately 2.4B $XRP tokens are liquid and ready for trading, equal to about $5B in value.OTC desks reportedly hold an additional $5B to $12B in deep liquidity.
Large institutions buying at OTC desks typically pay a 5% to 15% premium to avoid pushing the price higher on spot markets. While this is positive for long-term supply reduction, it does not impact exchange price immediately.
What $XRP Needs To Break Out
Technical analysis shows a bullish divergence forming on the RSI, which can mean a potential trend reversal. However, for a confirmed breakout, analysts are watching for daily closes above $2.68. To reach that level, strong new demand from multiple ETFs launching together may be required.
Experts believe that at least $1 to $3 billion in inflows in a single day could begin to push $XRP upward by 40 to 50 cents, while $5 billion or more may produce a clear rally.