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The retail payments sector in stablecoin is showing signs of maturation, with a clear transition from phases of explosive growth to a more organic and sustainable dynamic.
This is what emerges from the Q3 Stablecoin Retail Payments Index published by Orbital, a global platform for payment orchestration, in collaboration with Artemis.
The analysis provides a detailed overview of the sector’s evolution, highlighting how, after months of incentives and temporary booms, the market is finding a new balance based on a more genuine and everyday use of stablecoins.
Summary
Plasma and the Record of Deposits: A New Era for Layer 1 Blockchains
Among the most significant data of the quarter is the launch of Plasma and its native token XPL. In just three days from its debut, Plasma amassed over 7 billion dollars in stablecoin deposits, setting a new record for a newly launched Layer 1 blockchain. However, after the initial excitement, transaction volumes are gradually stabilizing, indicating that the early adoption phase is giving way to more measured growth.
BSC Still Leads, But Growth Slows
Established networks continue to play a central role in the retail payments landscape in stablecoins. The BNB Chain (BSC) by Binance maintains its leadership in retail transactions, especially for small and high-frequency payments. However, the growth in volumes on BSC has slowed down, recording a 50% decline compared to the previous quarter.
Even Aptos, which experienced a significant rise in the second quarter, has seen its volumes stabilize while maintaining a high daily transaction base. The increase in the average transaction size and the consistency in P2P volumes suggest that users are utilizing the network for real economic activities, going beyond mere speculation.
The Retail Market for Stablecoins Cools Down, but Genuine Flows Increase
After the peak of activity recorded in the second quarter, fueled by incentive programs and promotions, the retail market for stablecoins experienced a normalization in the third quarter.
The total number of transactions has decreased from 1.33 billion to 1.21 billion, while daily active users have stabilized at 3.6 million. Despite the cooling, these figures remain significantly higher than the levels at the beginning of 2025.
An interesting fact concerns the average transaction size, which is increasing, while the number of active wallets has stabilized. This indicates that, despite less frenzy compared to previous months, the use of stablecoins in retail payments is becoming more solid and entrenched.
Moreover, the gap between the total transaction volume and the “adjusted” volume (which excludes the speculative component) has decreased from 50% to 44%. This suggests that an increasing share of flows is linked to real payments – such as P2P transfers, remittances, merchant payments, and transfers between SMEs – rather than speculative trading.
USD1: From Boom to Downsizing
An emblematic example of this dynamic is represented by USD1. After reaching 6% of retail transactions in the second quarter, its share dropped to about 1% in the third quarter. The pattern highlights how activity spikes are often linked to temporary incentive programs, followed by a rapid normalization.
DeFi and Retail Payments: Two Worlds Diverging
The analysis by Orbital highlights a growing divergence between DeFi and retail payments. USDC remains the stablecoin of choice for DeFi, holding over 50% of the market in activities such as on-chain lending, liquidity pools, and institutional settlements. In this context, transactions are generally larger but less frequent, indicating high-value operations.
Conversely, USDT strengthens its position as the preferred token for retail payments, covering 83% of the market in this segment in the third quarter. Its distribution is extensive: 64% of the supply is held in self-custodial wallets, while 30% is divided into small retail balances between 10 and 100 dollars.
USDT and USDC together represent the core of stablecoin activity, supported by the liquidity provided by major centralized exchanges like Binance. Solutions like Binance Pay are becoming increasingly practical tools for facilitating stablecoin payments for both retail and institutional users.
Stablecoin Premium: The Impact of Local Liquidity
Another crucial aspect concerns the premiums paid by retail users to purchase dollar-pegged stablecoins compared to the official exchange rate. In the third quarter, the global average premium stood at 4.5%, but with significant differences across markets.
In countries like Venezuela (+34.6%), Turkey (+10.16%), and Argentina (+6.03%), the scarcity of liquidity infrastructure and reliance on informal P2P channels have driven premiums upward.
This phenomenon underscores the importance of regulated fiat gateways and reliable liquidity providers to stabilize stablecoin prices in emerging markets.
Towards a New Normal: Stablecoins as a Universal Payment Layer
According to Luke Wingfield Digby, Co-Founder & Head of Corporate Development at Orbital, the sector is entering a more mature phase: “After months of peaks driven by incentives, activity is settling into a more sustainable pace, defined less by speculation and more by everyday use.”
Stablecoins are no longer just synonymous with growth, but with real utility. The next step will be to make them usable everywhere, connecting networks, use cases, and geographies, thus transforming them into a true universal layer for payments.”
Methodology and Limitations of the Analysis
The Q3 Stablecoin Retail Payments Index is based on the analysis of public blockchain transaction data, filtering wallet-to-wallet transfers under $10,000 as a proxy for retail payments. The index does not include off-chain or private transactions and should be considered indicative of trends rather than exhaustive.
Stability, Organic Growth, and New Challenges
The picture emerging from Orbital’s report is that of an evolving sector, where organic growth and the genuine use of stablecoins in retail payments are progressively replacing speculative dynamics and peaks driven by incentives.
The challenge for the future will be to consolidate this trend, breaking down liquidity and regulatory barriers, to make stablecoins a truly universal and globally accessible tool.