Monero crypto: D1 Bearish Setup, Intraday Rebound Watch

Monero crypto shows a D1 profile that leans lower while intraday frames register a short squeeze. The daily chart signals a defensive stance but shorter timeframes hint at local buys; this piece walks through indicators, key levels and practical scenarios for XMR/USDT.

Market Overview 6 Monero crypto

Price sits below major moving averages and overall sentiment is cautious. Bitcoin dominance is elevated and the Fear & Greed gauge reads Fear, which together suggest liquidity is rotating back to BTC. That said, positive 24h market cap change signals some risk-on flows into altcoins.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart (D1)

The EMAs are top-heavy: EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200, confirming a daily bearish alignment. Interpretation: sellers control trend and moving-average resistance is crowded above current price.

Daily RSI 14: 38.32 6 Interpretation: momentum is weak but not deeply oversold; room exists for further downside or a corrective bounce.

MACD line -9.66 vs signal -8.97 (hist -0.69) 6 Interpretation: MACD is negative with a small contracting histogram, suggesting the bearish momentum is present but losing immediate intensity.

Bollinger Bands mid 133.10 / up 173.11 / low 93.10 6 Interpretation: wide band width indicates elevated range; price near lower band signals mean-reversion risk but not a trend reversal signal.

ATR14: 10.34 6 Interpretation: daily volatility is material; use wider stops and expect volatile swings relative to price.

Pivot PP 116.23 / R1 122.07 / S1 112.87 6 Interpretation: price is hovering around the pivot zone; failure below S1 would confirm bearish follow-through, while a reclaim of R1 would ease the short-term bias.

Intraday Picture (H1 6M15)

On H1 the EMAs cluster with EMA20 115.86 below EMA50 118.31 and EMA200 122.02, while RSI sits at 56.78. Interpretation: short-term structure is neutral-to-slightly-bullish, implying room for corrective rallies. The H1 MACD histogram is +0.29; that said, momentum is mild.

M15 shows stronger short squeeze dynamics: RSI 71.14 and MACD histogram +0.6. Interpretation: immediate momentum is bullish, but readings are close to overbought on the 15-minute frame.

Comparison: D1 bias is bearish, meanwhile H1 6M15 favor a local rebound. As a result, intraday longs can be tactical while respecting daily resistance levels.

Key Levels

Market reaction: price is testing the pivot band between 116 6118. A clear break below 112.87 would accelerate selling toward the Bollinger low. Meanwhile, rejection near 122.07 keeps sellers in control.

Trading Scenarios

Bullish: A sustained reclaim and close above 122.07 (daily R1) with rising volume. Target partial gains near 130 6140, stop under 116. Interpretation: this is a tactical reversal play against the prevailing daily trend.

Bearish: Failure to hold 112.87 with increasing ATR and expanding lower Bollinger band. Target 93 area, stop above 122. Interpretation: momentum-based continuation trade aligned with the D1 regime.

Neutral: Choppy consolidation between 112 6122. Expect range-bound trades and mean-reversion scalps. Interpretation: volatility may compress before the next directional expansion.

Market Context & Ecosystem

Macro: high BTC dominance and a Fear reading favor capital concentration in Bitcoin over alts. Moreover, DeFi DEX fee flows show mixed dynamics; that said, rising monthly fees on select DEXs indicate pockets of on-chain activity that can support altcoin rallies.

Final Takeaways

Overall bias for XMR/USDT is bearish on the daily chart, while intraday frames offer tactical long opportunities. However, risk management is essential given a daily ATR of 10.34 and crowded moving-average resistance. In summary, watch the pivot 116.23 6122.07 region and the support at 112.87 6 Monero crypto remains under pressure until a convincing daily reclaim occurs. Visit the official Monero website for more details.