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In summary
- D1 close 6.99 $USDT vs EMA20 7.01 1 neutral-to-bearish tilt with short-term resistance nearby; this week watch reaction at pivots.
- RSI 49.92 1 near neutral; MACD slightly positive on D1 but H1 momentum is weak.
- High ATR (0.78 $USDT) on daily suggests bigger stops; overall backdrop: Trump crypto market feels fragile amid broad market weakness.
Summary
Multi-timeframe analysis
Trump crypto market 6 multi-timeframe snapshot
D1 (daily)
Price: 6.99 $USDT. The close sits just below the D1 EMA20 (7.01 $USDT) and well below EMA50 (7.22 $USDT) and EMA200 (10.99 $USDT). This structure shows that the trend is bearish on the daily chart because price remains under the short and medium EMAs.
RSI14: 49.92 1 effectively neutral but slightly under 50, implying sellers keep a marginal edge on D1.
MACD: line 0.13 vs signal 0.05 (hist 0.08) 1 positive histogram shows some daily bullish momentum, however it contrasts with EMA alignment and suggests limited strength rather than a clear trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: mid 6.69 $USDT, upper 8.36 $USDT, lower 5.03 $USDT. Price near the middle band indicates mean-reversion rather than a volatility expansion; volatility is present but not directional.
ATR14: 0.78 $USDT 1 daily moves are material; use wider stops (see scenarios). This implies risk per trade is elevated compared with shorter timeframes.
Pivot: PP 6.97 $USDT, R1 7.15 $USDT, S1 6.81 $USDT. Price is sitting near the PP, so intraday flips above R1 or below S1 would be useful triggers.
Takeaway: D1 shows a bearish regime with mixed momentum; bulls need clear follow-through above EMA20/EMA50 to regain control.
H1 (hourly)
Close 6.99 $USDT below EMA20 (7.13 $USDT), EMA50 (7.27 $USDT) and EMA200 (7.36 $USDT). This alignment signals an intraday bearish bias and that intraday resistances sit overhead.
RSI14: 39.20 1 confirms bearish momentum on the hourly; buyers are subdued in the session.
MACD: line -0.08 vs signal -0.07 (hist -0.01) 1 slightly negative momentum, indicating short-term selling pressure but little acceleration.
Bollinger: mid 7.17 $USDT, lower 6.85 $USDT. Price is closer to the lower band, which hints at short-term compression and a chance for a bounce if buyers return.
ATR14: 0.17 $USDT 1 lower intraday volatility; tighter stops may be used on H1 trades but D1 ATR should guide overall risk.
Takeaway: H1 leans bearish with fragile momentum; expect choppy moves unless a breakout occurs.
M15 (15-minute)
Close 6.99 $USDT under EMA20 (7.03 $USDT) and EMA50 (7.08 $USDT). The micro-structure shows short-term resistance overhead and limited bullish conviction.
RSI14: 43.87 1 neutral-to-bearish on the micro timeframe, suggesting short-term exhaustion for buyers.
MACD: line -0.02 vs signal -0.02 (hist 0.00) 1 flat momentum; the market is consolidated and awaiting a directional cue.
Bollinger: mid 7.05 $USDT, upper 7.11 $USDT, lower 6.98 $USDT; price hugging the lower band implies micro compression and a high chance of a breakout or a quick mean-reversion.
ATR14: 0.05 $USDT 1 tight micro volatility; watch for a volatility pickup to confirm direction.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish while H1 and M15 reinforce short-term downside bias 6 overall cautious structure with potential for short bounces.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias / Note |
|---|---|---|
| 6.99 $USDT | Price (Close) | Near daily pivot; indecision zone |
| 7.01 $USDT | D1 EMA20 | Immediate resistance; daily bulls need reclaim |
| 7.22 $USDT | D1 EMA50 | Medium resistance; trend hurdle |
| 10.99 $USDT | D1 EMA200 | Long-term resistance; clear invalidation for bears if surpassed |
| 6.69 $USDT | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean level 6 shows reversion point |
| 8.36 $USDT | Bollinger upper (D1) | Upper volatility band; upside extension |
| 5.03 $USDT | Bollinger lower (D1) | Lower volatility band; strong support area |
| 7.15 $USDT / 6.81 $USDT | Pivot R1 / S1 | Short-term triggers for intraday moves |
Trading scenarios
Bullish scenario
Trigger: Clean reclaim and close above D1 EMA20 (7.01 $USDT) and pivot R1 (7.15 $USDT) on increased volume. Target: first target at EMA50 (7.22 $USDT), extension toward Bollinger upper (8.36 $USDT). Invalidation: daily close back under PP 6.97 $USDT. Risk: use stops at 0.5 61.0d7 ATR (0.39 60.78 $USDT) to account for daily volatility.
Bearish scenario (main)
Trigger: Breakdown and daily close below S1 (6.81 $USDT) and Bollinger mid (6.69 $USDT) with rising selling pressure. Target: range toward Bollinger lower (5.03 $USDT) and sustained pressure under EMA20/50. Invalidation: reclaim above EMA50 (7.22 $USDT) with momentum. Risk: stops 0.5 61.0d7 ATR (0.39 60.78 $USDT).
Neutral / Range scenario
Trigger: Oscillation between PP 6.97 $USDT and R1 7.15 $USDT without clear momentum. Target: short mean-reversion trades between 6.81 67.22 $USDT. Invalidation: any decisive breakout beyond EMA50 or below Bollinger lower. Risk: tighter intraday stops using H1/M15 ATR (0.17 / 0.05 $USDT) while respecting D1 ATR for position sizing.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,473,345,384,716.37 USD (24h -1.81%). $BTC dominance: 58.43%. Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear). High $BTC dominance and extreme fear often weigh on smaller tokens and increase correlation, so altcoin moves can be muted.
Ecosystem (DeFi)
DEX fees: Uniswap V3 and Fluid DEX show strong recent fee increases while Uniswap V2 fees dropped sharply. Curve and Uniswap V4 also show rising fee trends. Interpretation: mixed on-chain activity 6 selective participation across DeFi protocols suggests cautious capital rotation.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR