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Summary
In summary
- D1 bias: Bearish 6 price trades well below the 20/50/200 EMAs and outside the lower Bollinger band.
- Momentum: RSI at 31 and MACD negative 1 downside tilt with oversold cues.
- Levels: Immediate pivot 161.58 USDT; key support near 154.73 USDT, ATR 11.13 USDT guides stops.
Solana (SOL) price sits under pressure on the daily chart but shows short-term choppiness intraday.
Multi-timeframe analysis 6 Solana price
D1 (Daily)
Price vs EMAs: Close 160.44 USDT is below the 20 EMA 187.76, 50 EMA 196.92, and 200 EMA 187.04. This shows sellers control the bigger trend and moving averages act as resistance.
RSI: 31 1 in the bearish zone (<50), yet approaching oversold. This suggests momentum is negative but could invite mean-reversion if buying interest returns.
MACD: Line -8.02 vs signal -5.98, histogram -2.04 1 MACD confirms downward momentum; the widening negative gap points to persistent selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 186.78, low 168.07, upper 205.50. Price sits below the lower band at 160.44, indicating an extension beyond normal volatility and an oversold impulse move.
ATR: 11.13 USDT 1 elevated daily volatility. Use this to size risk; 0.51.0 ATR gives a stop range of ~5.5711.13 USDT.
Pivot: PP 161.58, R1 167.28, S1 154.73. Price below PP signals short bias; a reclaim of PP could flip intraday momentum.
H1 (Hourly)
Intraday EMAs: Close 160.44 vs EMA20 164.87 and EMA50 172.01 price below both, so intraday trend is bearish and the EMAs may cap rallies.
RSI: 34.48 weak momentum but not deeply oversold on H1. That implies rallies may be limited until buyers reassert themselves.
MACD: Line -4.37 vs signal -4.29, hist -0.08 marginally negative; momentum appears to be stabilizing but remains tilted down.
BB (H1): Mid 164.45, low 156.70. Price sits nearer lower band, pointing to intraday pressure with potential mean-reversion if range holds.
M15 (15-minute)
Micro structure: Close 160.64 above EMA20 160.17 but below EMA50 162.94. This shows short-term buyers trying to test resistance while higher TFs stay bearish.
RSI: 48.98 neutral on M15; momentum could swing quickly with small volume moves.
MACD: Line -1.05 vs signal -1.61, hist 0.56 a small bullish histogram suggests micro recovery, useful for short scalps but not a trend flip.
Synthesis: D1 is clearly bearish while H1 leans bearish and M15 shows short-term stabilization. Overall structure calls for caution and selective entries.
Key levels
| Level (USDT) | Type | Bias / Note |
|---|---|---|
| 196.92 | EMA50 | Major resistance 6 aligns with longer-term bearish trend. |
| 187.76 | EMA20 | Resistance 6 near Bollinger mid and EMA200 (187.04). |
| 187.04 | EMA200 | Resistance 6 critical trend hurdle. |
| 168.07 | Bollinger low | Short-term support; price is currently below this level. |
| 167.28 | Pivot R1 | First resistance on mean-reversion attempts. |
| 161.58 | Pivot PP | Intraday trigger 6 reclaim would ease short-term pressure. |
| 154.73 | Pivot S1 | Next support; break opens lower targets. |
Trading scenarios
Bullish scenario
Trigger: Reclaim and close above PP 161.58 then above 167.28 (R1).
Target: 168.07187.04 USDT zone (first resistance band if momentum builds).
Invalidation: Failure to hold PP (close back below 160.00 USDT).
Risk: Use stops at 0.51.0 ATR (5.5711.13 USDT) below entry; this caps downside if momentum fails.
Bearish scenario
Trigger: Sustained daily close below 154.73 USDT (S1) or continued pressure below Bollinger low.
Target: Lower targets not provided.
Invalidation: Strong reversal reclaim above 161.58 USDT with increased volume.
Risk: Stops 0.51.0 ATR above recent swing; ATR guides position sizing.
Neutral / Range scenario
Trigger: Price chops between 154.73 and 167.28 USDT without clear breakout.
Target: Range-bound scalps toward pivot and BB low/mid.
Invalidation: Breakout beyond either boundary with follow-through.
Risk: Tight stops (0.250.5 ATR) given higher false-break risk intraday.
Market context
Total cap: 3,536,024,712,020.74 USD; 24h change -3.61% broad risk-off backdrop.
BTC dominance: 58.57% high concentration in Bitcoin often pressures altcoins.
Fear & Greed: 21 (Extreme Fear) sentiment is cautious and liquidity could remain thin.
High BTC dominance and extreme fear usually weigh on altcoins like Solana; expect higher volatility and lower appetite for sustained rallies.
Ecosystem (DeFi)
DEX fees: Raydium, Orca, Meteora, HumidiFi, and SolFi show variable daily fee flows; several recorded strong 1-day increases.
Interpretation: Mixed fee trends suggest selective user activity across Solana DeFi. This points to localized demand rather than broad network re-acceleration.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR