en.cryptonomist.ch
Summary
In summary
- DOGE Analysis: Price at 0.17 below EMAs (0.20/0.21/0.22) → bearish bias.
- RSI 34.70 and flat MACD → sellers still control, momentum fragile.
- Breach of lower Bollinger Band near 0.18 → oversold bounce risk.
- BTC dominance 58.19 and Fear & Greed 42 (Fear) → altcoins pressured.
Multi-timeframe DOGE Analysis
D1 (daily)
Trend: Price trades at 0.17, below the 20/50/200-day EMAs at 0.20/0.21/0.22. This places DOGE firmly under all major moving averages, signaling a prevailing downtrend where sellers retain the initiative.
RSI 34.70: The oscillator sits below 50, pointing to bearish momentum with proximity to the oversold zone. This often means bounces can happen, but the broader bias stays negative until RSI recovers above 50.
MACD: Line and signal are both at -0.01 with a flat histogram (0). Momentum looks paused rather than reversing; bulls lack evidence of a turn.
Bollinger Bands: Mid at 0.19, upper at 0.21, lower at 0.18. Price near/below the lower band implies a stretched move, raising the chance of mean reversion toward 0.19 if sellers ease up.
ATR 0.01: Daily volatility of roughly 0.01 suggests ranges can expand quickly around supports/resistances; risk control matters when price whips around key levels.
Pivots: PP 0.18, R1 0.18, S1 0.17. Clustering around 0.18 highlights it as a key pivot; a clean break back above would ease pressure, while a loss of 0.17 would confirm weakness.
H1 (hourly)
Intraday trend: Price sits under the 20/50/200-hour EMAs (0.18/0.18/0.19). Sellers dominate intraday, though the distance to EMAs hints at near-term rebound attempts.
RSI 24.88: Deeply oversold. Intraday bounces could be sharp, but until RSI stabilizes above 40–50, rallies may fade quickly.
MACD: Flat near 0 with no clear slope. This reflects indecision after a selloff, often preceding a directional push.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 0.18, lower 0.17. Price hugging the lower band shows persistent pressure; a move to the mid-band would signal relief.
ATR 0.00: Reported as zero, indicating extremely compressed realized volatility or limited data; breakouts can feel abrupt when volatility re-expands.
M15 (15-min)
Micro-structure: Price 0.17 with EMA20 at 0.17 and EMA50/200 at 0.18. Short-term rhythm is heavy below higher EMAs, with sellers fading bounces.
RSI 37.48: Weak but not oversold; momentum feels fragile. A push above 50 would be the first sign that buyers are stabilizing intraday.
MACD: Flat near 0. No edge until a clear slope appears.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 0.17, upper 0.18, lower 0.17. Tight bands align with the zero ATR, showing compression that often precedes a quick move.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish while H1/M15 are oversold and compressed. The structure leans lower, but the tape is prone to relief bounces if sellers pause.
Key levels
Three levels to watch this week: 0.17 (S1), 0.18 (PP/lower band zone), and 0.20 (EMA20). These will likely shape the next reaction.
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 0.22 | EMA200 (D1) | Long-term resistance |
| 0.21 | EMA50 (D1) | Intermediate resistance |
| 0.20 | EMA20 (D1) | First dynamic resistance; reclaim tempers downside |
| 0.19 | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean-reversion magnet if pressure eases |
| 0.18 | Pivot PP (D1) | Range pivot; resistance while below |
| 0.18 | Bollinger lower (D1) | Oversold threshold; failed reclaim = weakness |
| 0.17 | Pivot S1 (D1) | Immediate support; breakdown risk |
Trading scenarios for DOGE Analysis
Bearish (Main, D1)
Trigger: Rejections near 0.18–0.19 with lower highs below 0.20 (EMA20), then a push under 0.17 (S1).
Target: 0.17 first; further downside levels are not provided.
Invalidation: Daily close back above 0.20.
Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× ATR(14) ≈ 0.01–0.01, i.e., 0.005–0.010 USDT, given D1 ATR 0.01.
Bullish
Trigger: Reclaim 0.18 (PP) and sustain a daily close above 0.20 (EMA20).
Target: 0.19 (mid-band) first, then 0.20–0.21 if momentum improves.
Invalidation: Loss of 0.18 after the reclaim.
Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× ATR (≈0.005–0.010 USDT) to respect daily volatility.
Neutral
Trigger: Consolidation between 0.17 and 0.19, with RSI stabilizing and MACD staying flat.
Target: Range rotations toward 0.18–0.19 while below 0.20.
Invalidation: Break below 0.17 or a close above 0.20.
Risk: Use 0.5–1.0× ATR sizing; compressed intraday ATRs caution against tight stops.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,677,692,747,112.81 USD; 24h change: -3.41%. BTC dominance: 58.19%. Fear & Greed Index: 42 (Fear).
High Bitcoin dominance and Fear sentiment usually weigh on altcoins, keeping risk appetite selective and rallies fragile.
Ecosystem (DeFi or chain)
DEX fees: Yodeswap total all-time fees 58,675,096; Wojak Finance 633,533. Broader DOGE-specific DeFi metrics are not provided.
Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR