thecryptobasic.com
A well-known analyst has identified the crucial area XRP would have to pull back to before it can stage a full recovery to previous highs.
For context, XRP has been trying to regain its footing after the sharp drop on Oct. 10, but the recent weakness across the broader crypto market has slowed its recovery. Despite supportive macro factors, such as the latest interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, XRP’s price is seeing another pullback after briefly rebounding.
Still, it continues to hold above $2.5, and several analysts believe this shows XRP is setting up for one last correction before it begins another strong move toward $3 and beyond.
The chart indicates that the drop completed the ABCDE correction and started a new Elliott Wave structure, which now overlaps with another ABC correction.
Notably, the recovery to $2.64 on Oct. 13 marked the end of Wave 1, while the decline to $2.29 on Oct. 17 formed wave A of the ABC correction. From there, XRP bounced back to $2.69 on Oct. 27, completing wave B. Since then, XRP has started to retreat again, in line with DustyBC’s expectation of one final dip.
Level XRP Must Drop to Before Full Recovery
The chart further shows that this current pullback could complete both the C wave of the ABC correction and Wave 2 of the ongoing Elliott Wave structure. Specifically, he circled a price zone between $2.08 and $2.33 and described it as the level XRP needs to revisit before it can build strength for the next rally.
Once XRP reaches this area, he expects the correction to end and Wave 3 to begin, a move he believes will push XRP above the descending channel and drive it past $3, possibly retesting the $3.5 region.
Interestingly, another analyst, Casi Trades, shares a similar outlook. She said XRP looks ready for its final drop before a major rebound. According to her, XRP turned bearish after rejecting Wave 4 resistance near $2.68, while the RSI formed a new low, confirming that Wave 5 of the correction has started.
Casi pointed out three main support levels on Coinbase at $2.42, $2.03, and $1.65. She explained that a break below $2.42 would likely confirm more downside toward $2.03 and $1.65, with the last level aligning with the macro 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
She expects the price to bottom out around this zone before a strong Wave 3 impulse begins, which could send XRP quickly through resistance levels and toward new highs.
A Familiar Response to Fed Rate Cut
Meanwhile, as XRP and the broader market continue to correct despite the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, Dark Defender pointed out that XRP showed similar behavior before its last major rally.
On September 18, 2024, the Fed cut the rates by 50 bps. #XRPArmy was dead silent, as was the rest of the Crypto communities.
XRP was at $0.50 before the $3.66 run!
We addressed the Bull Run 6 weeks before the Surge.
Now, the Fed cut the rates by 25
We have the same panicWe… https://t.co/efK0OLCKfn
— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) October 30, 2025
He noted that when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Sept. 18, 2024, XRP traded near $0.50, and the market’s lack of excitement came just weeks before its surge to $3.66. With the Fed’s recent 25-basis-point cut, he suggested that another rally could form before the next Fed meeting.