en.cryptonomist.ch
Summary
In summary
- D1 RSI 38.94 → bearish tilt; buyers cautious.
- EMAs, MACD, Bollinger, ATR, pivots: not provided.
- Intraday RSI mixed (H1 49.01; M15 51.44) → range behavior.
- Fear & Greed at 29 (Fear) aligns with risk-off tone.
- This SHIB Analysis focuses on five watchpoints for this week.
Multi-timeframe analysis — SHIB Analysis
Context: Data gaps limit precision, so we emphasize momentum reads and regime. The daily bias is bearish, while lower timeframes look balanced. This usually means rallies face supply unless momentum improves decisively.
SHIB Analysis — Daily (D1)
RSI 38.94: Below 50, indicating sellers retain the upper hand. This suggests bounces could fade unless RSI reclaims the 50–55 zone.
EMA (20/50/200): not provided. Without trend anchors, we treat moving averages as potential dynamic resistance in a bearish regime.
MACD: not provided. Momentum confirmation is missing; traders may rely more on RSI and structure until MACD crosses are visible.
Bollinger Bands: not provided. Volatility posture unclear; price often hugs the lower band during downswings.
ATR: not provided. Risk sizing needs caution; assume volatility can expand after compressions.
Pivots: not provided. Without PP/S1/R1, focus shifts to prior swing zones and EMA reclaim as triggers.
Overall, the D1 tone is bearish; momentum feels fragile and buyers seem hesitant.
SHIB Analysis — Hourly (H1)
RSI 49.01: Near neutral, hinting at a sideways bias intraday. This often precedes a directional push once a catalyst appears.
EMA set: not provided. In a neutral regime, intraday price typically oscillates around short EMAs until a breakout.
MACD/Bollinger/ATR/Pivots: not provided. Without these, we treat ranges and RSI shifts as first response signals.
Intraday, the structure looks balanced, but upside conviction is still unproven.
SHIB Analysis — 15-minute (M15)
RSI 51.44: Slightly above neutral, suggesting modest bid on micro dips. However, such edges often fade quickly in a broader bearish backdrop.
Other indicators: EMAs, MACD, Bollinger, ATR, pivots not provided. Expect quick rotations and false breaks near session highs/lows.
Short term, momentum is cautiously constructive, but fragile.
Synthesis: D1 is bearish while H1 and M15 are near neutral. Overall, a cautious structure—rallies could stall unless daily momentum improves.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| not provided | Price (USDT) | Reference price missing |
| not provided | EMA20 (D1) | Likely dynamic resistance in bear regime |
| not provided | EMA50 (D1) | Trend confirmation on reclaim |
| not provided | EMA200 (D1) | Major trend filter; below = risk-off |
| not provided | Bollinger Upper/Middle/Lower | Gauge volatility envelope |
| not provided | Pivot PP | Neutral line for intraday bias |
| not provided | Pivot R1 | First resistance for breakouts |
| not provided | Pivot S1 | First support for pullbacks |
Takeaway: With levels missing, traders may prioritize momentum shifts and EMA reclaims as proxies for support and resistance.
Trading scenarios
Bearish (main)
Trigger: Failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA (not provided) with D1 RSI staying below 45.
Target: Retest of recent swing lows (not provided).
Invalidation: Daily close above the 50-day EMA (not provided).
Risk: Stops sized at 0.5–1.0× ATR14 (not provided); slippage risk if volatility expands.
Bullish
Trigger: D1 RSI reclaiming 50 with a close above the 20/50 EMA cluster (not provided).
Target: Move toward the 200-day EMA and prior breakdown area (not provided).
Invalidation: Loss of reclaimed EMAs on a daily close.
Risk: Use 0.5–1.0× ATR14 (not provided); watch for fakeouts near resistance.
Neutral
Trigger: Price chopping around PP (not provided) with H1 RSI 45–55.
Target: Range extremes near R1/S1 (not provided).
Invalidation: Clean break and hold beyond R1 or S1.
Risk: Tight risk 0.3–0.6× ATR14 (not provided); quick rotations likely.
Bottom line: The daily bearish regime keeps sellers in control unless EMAs are reclaimed with improving momentum.
Market context
Total crypto mcap: ~$3.76T; 24h change -2.43%. BTC dominance: 58.13%. Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear). High dominance and fear typically weigh on altcoin beta and liquidity.
Implication: In such tape, rotations are selective and breakouts need strong catalysts. This backdrop can cap upside until sentiment stabilizes.
Read more about institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies from the Bank for International Settlements.
Ecosystem (DeFi/DEX)
DEX fees snapshot: Uniswap V3 daily fees up 23.33% (7d +51.57%), Curve DEX +56% day-on-day, while Fluid DEX slipped -4.22% and Uniswap V4 -20.72% over 7d. Mixed activity suggests uneven risk appetite across DeFi.
Read: Divergent DEX flows imply selective participation; spillovers to memecoins can be choppy. Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR