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Cardano would need to set a new all-time high (ATH) to have any chance of surpassing $XRP again, just as it did in 2021.
Cardano ($ADA), which ranked as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap in 2021, has now slipped to the 10th position. During its 2021 rally, Cardano’s price surged to $3.10, briefly surpassing other established assets like $XRP.
However, $ADA has since declined significantly, with $XRP now the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency globally. Like most cryptocurrencies, $ADA has faced an extended bearish trend in recent times.
At the current price of $0.6426, Cardano is down 23.7% year-to-date (YTD), 8.72% over the past six months, 13% in the past 3 months, and 18.9% over the past 30 days. It ranks as the 10th biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $23.04 billion.
Cardano’s market cap is significantly lower than $XRP’s, which has a valuation of over $100 billion. With a unit price of around $2.58, $XRP is valued at $154.9 billion and ranks as the third-largest non-stablecoin asset. Unlike Cardano, $XRP has spiked 24.1% year-to-date and 16.6% over the past six months.
Price Needed for Cardano to Overtake $XRP
For Cardano to surpass $XRP in the global crypto rankings, its price would need to rise substantially so that its market capitalization exceeds $XRP’s $154.9 billion valuation.
Given Cardano’s circulating supply of roughly 35.86 billion $ADA, it would require a market cap of at least $155 billion to overtake $XRP. This translates to a target price of approximately $4.32 per $ADA, representing a 572.26% increase from its current market value. It would also mark a new all-time high for Cardano, surpassing its 2021 record of $3.10.
While this estimate assumes a $4.32 price could help $ADA overtake $XRP, it is worth noting that any additional price surge from $XRP would further widen the gap Cardano must close to surpass it. Moreover, back in July, $XRP’s market capitalization reached a historic level above $210 billion.
Popular Calls for $4 $ADA
Meanwhile, the $4 price target has surfaced repeatedly in various Cardano forecasts. In December 2024, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the $4–$6 range as his target zone for taking profits on $ADA.
Similarly, in July, analyst Crypto Smith identified a cup-and-handle pattern on Cardano’s chart, suggesting the token could be poised for a bullish breakout toward $4.
Moreover, Cardano community figure Mintern predicted that $ADA could reach $4 this year, despite Changelly’s more conservative forecast, which projects the target will be reached by 2029.