en.cryptonomist.ch
Summary
In summary
- D1 regime is neutral; price at 6.83 USDT, near the pivot.
- RSI 53.51 and positive MACD histogram hint at cautious buyers.
- Below EMA50/EMA200 but above EMA20 → mixed trend.
- This TRUMP Analysis flags five key levels for this week.
Multi-timeframe analysis
Daily TRUMP Analysis (D1)
D1: Price closes at 6.83 USDT. It sits above the EMA20 (6.43) but below the EMA50 (7.10) and EMA200 (11.28). This split suggests short-term support amid a still-muted higher-timeframe trend; bulls have work to do above 7.10.
RSI: The RSI14 reads 53.51, slightly above 50. Momentum leans constructive, but not emphatic — buyers are probing, not charging.
MACD: Line −0.23 vs signal −0.41 with a +0.18 histogram. The line above signal while sub-zero shows improving momentum from a weak baseline; upswings could fade if price stalls near resistance.
Bollinger Bands: Bands center at 6.15 with an upper band at 7.15 and lower at 5.15. Price near the mid-to-upper zone implies buyers testing range highs; a rejection near 7.15 would cap enthusiasm.
ATR: ATR14 at 0.41. Daily volatility is moderate; risk control benefits from measured position sizing.
Pivot: PP 6.89, R1 7.07, S1 6.65. Trading around PP suggests indecision; a clean move beyond R1 would strengthen the bull case, while a slip under S1 would hand initiative back to sellers.
Intraday TRUMP Analysis (H1)
H1: Price at 6.83 sits just below EMA20 (6.88) but above EMA50 (6.62) and EMA200 (6.17). Intraday, the 20-EMA acts as near-term dynamic resistance; trend is mixed with a slight upside cushion from the slower EMAs.
RSI: RSI14 is 50.46, effectively neutral. Momentum is balanced; direction likely follows breaks of nearby levels.
MACD: Line 0.09 below signal 0.16; histogram −0.07. Momentum is easing, hinting at a pause; bulls need a flip back above the signal.
Bollinger Bands: Mid at 7.03, with price below it and above the lower band at 6.24. This positioning shows mild pressure as rallies meet offers near the center line.
ATR: 0.20. Intraday volatility is contained; breakouts may require a catalyst.
Pivot: PP 6.80, R1 6.86, S1 6.77. Tight pivots underline range-bound conditions and quick mean reversion risk.
Micro structure (M15)
M15: Price below EMA20 (6.85) and EMA50 (6.91), above EMA200 (6.61). Short-term pressure persists while under 6.85–6.91, though the 200-EMA underprice keeps the micro uptrend intact.
RSI: RSI14 at 45.01. Slight bearish tilt; buyers look hesitant on quick upticks.
MACD: Line −0.05 just above signal −0.06; histogram +0.01. A fragile bounce is forming, yet sub-zero values warn against chasing.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 6.84, upper 6.96, lower 6.72. Price near the middle suggests compression; watch for a coil-and-break.
ATR: 0.05. Micro volatility is low; moves can accelerate quickly once a level gives way.
Overall, D1 is neutral while H1 and M15 are slightly indecisive. The structure is cautious: strength above 7.07–7.10 could unlock continuation; weakness below 6.65 risks a deeper pullback.
Key levels
Five levels to watch this week: 6.65, 6.83–6.89, 7.07, 7.10, 7.15.
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 6.65 | S1 (D1 Pivot) | Key support; loss opens downside |
| 6.83 | Price/M15 PP | Micro balance point |
| 6.89 | PP (D1 Pivot) | Decision line; above favors buyers |
| 7.07 | R1 (D1 Pivot) | First breakout trigger |
| 7.10 | EMA50 (D1) | Trend filter; reclaim to regain control |
| 7.15 | Bollinger Upper (D1) | Overhead band; potential rejection zone |
| 6.43 | EMA20 (D1) | Near-term support |
| 11.28 | EMA200 (D1) | Long-term resistance ceiling |
Trading scenarios
Bullish setup
- Trigger: Acceptance above 7.07 (R1) and 7.10 (EMA50 D1).
- Target: 7.15 (upper band) first.
- Invalidation: Back below 6.89 (PP) on a closing basis.
- Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× ATR D1 ≈ 0.21–0.41 USDT; volatility moderate.
Bearish setup
- Trigger: Breakdown below 6.65 (S1) with momentum confirmation.
- Target: 6.43 (EMA20) and, if pressure persists, the mid-band 6.15.
- Invalidation: Reclaim of 6.89 (PP) and sustained trade above it.
- Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× ATR D1 ≈ 0.21–0.41 USDT; watch for whipsaws near pivots.
Neutral base case (D1)
- Trigger: Sideways between 6.65 and 7.10 while RSI hovers near 50.
- Target: Fade moves back to PP 6.89; range tactics favored.
- Invalidation: A decisive daily close beyond 7.10 or below 6.65.
- Risk: Use 0.5–1.0× ATR D1 ≈ 0.21–0.41 USDT; reduce size into news.
This section frames the core of the TRUMP Analysis: neutral on D1, tactical on lower timeframes.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,958,803,740,101 USD; 24h change −0.39%. BTC dominance: 57.63%. Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral). High dominance and neutral sentiment often temper altcoin follow-through; breakouts can stall without broader risk appetite.
Ecosystem (DeFi or chain)
DEX fees snapshot: Uniswap V3 shows +46.09% 1d change; Uniswap V4 +91.89% 1d and +47.55% 7d; Fluid DEX +54.13% 1d; Curve DEX −14.21% 1d but +96.18% 7d. Activity is rising in several venues, hinting at selective rotation.
Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms.
Recent news
- Reports highlight new US trade deals aimed at strengthening the country’s edge in Southeast Asia.
- Regional meetings emphasize multilateral trade frameworks amid shifting US engagement.
- Discussions on tariffs and critical minerals remain in focus as timelines and agreements evolve.
These macro headlines can sway risk sentiment, a relevant backdrop for this TRUMP Analysis.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR