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Crypto researcher and XRP community member SMQKE recently resurrected discussions about XRP’s potential in the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization sector.
In his latest commentary, SMQKE explained that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) stands in a strong position to lead the massive $867 trillion RWA tokenization market projected by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
WEF Expects RWA Tokenization Sector to Hit $867T
He pointed out that as of August, the RWA sector only had a value of $26 billion. At press time, it has grown to $33.2 billion worth of real-world assets, but this is still a tiny start compared to what the WEF expects.
He also noted that financial experts, including those from the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, see the XRPL as one of the top blockchains capable of handling global asset tokenization. As a result, some expect the network to capture a huge chunk of the market.
Gemini Presents XRP Valuation Model
However, one question remains: how much could XRP’s price actually gain if this happens? To get a proper assessment, we asked Google Gemini to give a bullish estimate of XRP’s potential price if the XRPL captured 5%, 20%, or 35% of the projected $867 trillion RWA market.
According to Gemini, XRP’s price would depend on how deeply the token becomes integrated as a bridge asset and liquidity source for XRPL’s decentralized exchange (DEX).
Gemini explained that XRP’s true value is in its utility as a settlement currency. As a result, instead of using a simple market cap comparison, Gemini used what it called a “liquidity model.”
For context, this approach links XRP’s total market cap to the level of liquidity it must provide to support a share of the RWA market. Gemini said XRPL’s speed, low fees, and built-in compliance tools make it appealing for institutions looking for fast and secure settlement solutions.
XRP Price Projection
Meanwhile, for the projections, Gemini assumed that the XRP circulating supply remains around 60 billion tokens and its current price stands at $3.
It then introduced a “liquidity ratio” to estimate how much market cap XRP would need relative to the RWA market it serves. Gemini used a range between 0.25% and 0.75%, calling it an aggressive but realistic level for a high-efficiency network like XRPL.
If the XRPL captured 5% of the $867 trillion RWA market, roughly $43.35 trillion, Gemini estimated XRP’s market cap would range between $108.38 billion and $325.13 billion. That would give XRP a potential price between $1.81 and $5.42.
However, at a 20% market share, representing about $173.4 trillion in tokenized assets, Gemini projected XRP’s market cap could rise to between $433.5 billion and $1.3 trillion, which would push the token’s price to between $7.23 and $21.67.
Meanwhile, if XRPL captured 35% of the RWA market, around $303.45 trillion, Gemini said XRP’s market valuation could reach as high as $2.28 trillion, rivaling Bitcoin. This scenario would put XRP’s price between $12.64 and $37.95.