Toncoin Below $3: Trap for Retail or Rare DCA Opportunity?

Toncoin ($TON) has faced a sharp correction in recent weeks, slipping below the $3 mark amid concerns over upcoming token unlocks.

While selling pressure dominates short-term sentiment, a growing number of institutional moves suggest the current decline could present a chance to begin a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy.

$TON Token Unlocks Fuel Selling Pressure

As of this writing, $TON was trading for $2.66, after dropping by 1.3% in the last 24 hours and over 5% in the last week.

$TON) Price Performance">

Toncoin ($TON) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

The immediate headwind for the Toncoin price comes from the Believers Fund, which will begin releasing approximately 37 million $TON each month starting in November 2025.

Although initial fears pointed to a one-time release of 635 million tokens, clarification from $TON ecosystem figures has eased the worst-case scenario.

Still, regular monthly unlocks will introduce significant new supply. Analysts see the overhang as a “time bomb” for short-term pricing. This raises concerns of the $TON price dipping toward $2.61 before stabilizing.

Social commerce activity, $NFT sticker demand within Telegram, and other network use cases are seen as potential offsetting forces.

Institutional Confidence Anchors the Market

Despite looming unlocks, institutional players are signaling conviction in $TON’s long-term value. $TON Strategy Company (Nasdaq: TONX), a listed digital asset treasury (DAT) firm, has staked 82% of its Toncoin reserves.

The firm expects staking revenues, estimated at $24 million annually under current conditions, to fund an ongoing $250 million share buyback program.

“This accretive approach, staking income in, buybacks out, reinforces our long-term focus on shareholder value,” said CEO Veronika Kapustina.

Reportedly, TONX has repurchased over 1.5 million shares since mid-September, signaling confidence in both the underlying asset and its own valuation.

In parallel, AlphaTON Capital has emerged as another heavyweight institutional holder. The firm recently completed $71 million in financings and immediately deployed $30 million into $TON. AlphaTON also plans to scale its treasury to $100 million by year-end.

Backed by industry figures from Animoca Brands, the Kraken exchange, SkyBridge, and DWF Labs, AlphaTON sees $TON’s integration into Telegram’s billion-user ecosystem as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Risk and Opportunity Balance

The tug-of-war between consistent unlock-driven selling pressure and growing institutional accumulation defines $TON’s near-term outlook.

On the one hand, retail traders may fear dilution. Still, professional investors are betting on $TON’s unique positioning as the only major crypto asset directly embedded into a mainstream social application.

Adding to the potential opportunity, $TON’s Sharpe Ratio has recently entered a low-risk zone.

$TON Sharpe Ratio">

$TON Sharpe Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

This technical signal suggests that, relative to volatility, $TON may now offer more favorable return prospects for disciplined accumulators.

With $TON facing dual forces, supply expansion on one side and deep-pocketed accumulation on the other, predicting short-term price action remains fraught. Traders and investors should conduct their own research.

However, sub-$3 levels could mark a strategic entry point for investors with a longer horizon. A DCA strategy would reduce timing risk by spreading purchases across multiple intervals, ensuring exposure if institutional conviction overpowers near-term fear.

The post Toncoin Below $3: Trap for Retail or Rare DCA Opportunity? appeared first on BeInCrypto.