coindesk.com
20 September 2025 23:22, UTC
Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory.
From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million.
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Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”
Polymarket's longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially.
This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi's users are trading more often, while Polymarket's positions tend to sit.
Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again.
It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time.
