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Polkadot is revisiting levels last seen in October 2023. The $3.75 support zone is critical for a potential reversal, with signs pointing to a larger range-bound structure forming.
Polkadot ($DOT) is trading at historical lows near the $3.75 mark, a key support zone not revisited since October 2023. This level holds high significance, acting as a major structural point where buyers may begin to step in. The broader price structure suggests $DOT is cycling within a larger range, and a confirmed reclaim of this support zone could mark the beginning of a broader reversal. However, key conditions must be met before upside momentum can be confirmed.
Key technical points
- $3.75 High Time Frame Support: Major structural support with confluence from the value area low and point of control.
- Potential Reversal Zone: Historical demand area not seen since October 2023, signaling a possible macro low.
- Bearish Market Structure: Still intact with lower highs and lows; confirmation needed via a higher low and breakout above local high.
The $3.75 region is more than just a psychological level, it represents a multi-month value area low and aligns with the point of control for $DOT’s price action dating back to October 2023. This triple confluence zone makes it a major area of interest, where buyers historically stepped in to reverse trend momentum. The fact that $DOT has returned to this level gives technical traders a potential opportunity to observe a significant macro low forming.
Price action has been in a relentless downtrend since printing its swing high. While there was a local high formed in an attempted bounce, the entire move was retraced, highlighting continued bearish pressure. Now, however, $DOT is testing the very base of its high time frame trading range, where price historically pivots and begins a new cycle back toward the range highs.
For bullish continuation to be confirmed, a shift in market structure is necessary. Currently, $DOT is still forming lower lows and lower highs. A reversal scenario would require the price to reclaim the $3.75 level decisively, take out the local high, and then print a higher low.
This would indicate a break in bearish structure and confirm demand in the zone. Only then can a rotation toward the $7.67 resistance level, the upper boundary of the larger range, be expected with any conviction.
The current zone can also be interpreted as a deviation below value, particularly if price action quickly reclaims the point of control and confirms the move with increased volume. Such a deviation would suggest a bear trap at the range lows and open the probability for a sharp rally fueled by short covering and fresh accumulation.
What to expect in the coming price action
If $DOT confirms support above $3.75 and breaks above the recent local high, a larger reversal toward $7.67 could begin. Until then, price action remains range-bound, and traders should monitor closely for a shift in market structure.