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A crypto commentator details why XRP might face a significant challenge of reaching $1200 if it looks to replicate the Bitcoin rally from November 2011 to 2013.
Notably, XRP has been on an impressive upward trajectory since the U.S. elections in November 2024. During the elections, which saw pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump claim victory, XRP traded at $0.5035.
Since then, the token has surged 336% to $2.21, outperforming most top-tier crypto assets. This rally has triggered a renewal of optimism, with some market participants predicting future prices as high as $27 and even $100.
In the latest commentary, market analyst Steph recently presented the idea of XRP claiming a highly ambitious $1,200 price level, questioning why XRP could not replicate Bitcoin’s historical performance from late 2011 to late 2013.
Bitcoin’s Historical Price Surge
He shared a chart detailing Bitcoin’s price increase within this timeframe. For context, in late November 2011, Bitcoin traded at just $2. However, by August 2012, it reached $16, marking a 700% gain.
After a brief pullback from this peak, Bitcoin surged to $259 in April 2013, representing a 12,850% increase from its 2011 price. Interestingly, the rally continued, and Bitcoin hit $1,200 in November 2013, achieving an overall gain of nearly 59,900% within two years.
With XRP now trading for $2.2, Steph, who has always been vocally bullish on the altcoin, questions why it cannot replicate this uptrend. Notably, XRP demonstrated its penchant for growth when it saw a more substantial upsurge from $0.005 to $3.31 in the 2017/2018 run.
Major Challenge for XRP
Responding to Steph, Nathan Goldstein, a real estate investor and Bitcoin advocate, argues that XRP’s circumstances differ, making a similar rally highly improbable.
All crypto gets is “price” in fiat. If $XRP had a fiat price of $1200 then the total market cap based on Max Supply would be $120T.
In Q2 2024 the total global M2 currency supply was $129T. So that means 93% of all currency worldwide would have to buy XRP for it to hit $1200.
— Nathan Goldstein (@Number_One_Lion) December 22, 2024
Goldstein highlighted XRP’s much larger supply as a major limiting factor. For context, XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, with 57.25 billion currently circulating. If XRP reached $1,200 per token, its fully diluted market cap would soar to $120 trillion.
However, it is important to consider the total M2 global money supply. Goldstein suggested that this metric stood at $129 trillion by Q2 2024, but latest data indicates that this figure currently stands at $104 trillion.
This suggests that XRP’s fully diluted market cap of $120 trillion at a price of $1,200 per token would be 15% higher than all the money available in the world. Also, considering the circulating supply of 57.25 billion, a $1,200 price would put XRP’s market cap at $68.7 billion, 66% of the global M2 money supply.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap at its $1,200 peak in 2013 represented just a fraction of global currency. Bitcoin had a circulating supply of 12 million tokens by November 2013, according to data from Statista. This means its market cap was around $14.4 billion when the price hit $1,200 in November 2013.