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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan commented on the evolving regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Speaking to Yahoo Finance today, Hougan noted that regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins on November 5, the post-election environment is of great importance for Ethereum and altcoins in particular.
Hougan noted that Bitcoin is in a relatively strong position in terms of regulatory clarity thanks to its classification as a commodity by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The increasing adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs is further solidifying this position. “Bitcoin doesn’t need Washington to succeed,” Hougan said. “Institutions are getting into the space, adoption is increasing, ETF flows are happening. I think we’re going to go higher anyway.”
However, he noted that Ethereum and other altcoins face a more uncertain regulatory environment, which could be significantly shaped by the election outcome. Polymarket’s Ethereum-based forecast odds are heavily tilted in favor of a Trump victory, with the former President’s lead approaching 70%, marking the highest level ever, while Vice President Harris’ odds have fallen to the lowest level since she took over the ticket in August. The market, which has cumulative estimates for the outcome exceeding $2.6 billion, points to growing investor interest in the election’s impact on crypto.
Hougan said that if Trump wins and Republicans take control of Congress, it could pave the way for several crypto-friendly bills to be passed, thus providing clearer rules for digital assets beyond Bitcoin. “I think the regulatory clarity that you’re talking about is actually more important for altcoins, namely Ethereum,” he said. “They are more exposed to regulatory risk, so I would expect an altcoin rally even more than a Bitcoin rally if Trump wins. But regardless, I think both will go up.”
In his analysis, Hougan said that a new SEC under the Trump administration could create a favorable environment for institutional adoption of Ethereum and other altcoins, which could lead to a broader market rally. He believes that the coming year could be even more promising for digital assets.
Earlier this month, Bitwise cited strong momentum, predicting that Bitcoin could “rise” to $80,000 by the end of 2024. In a note to clients on Oct. 9, Hougan reiterated that Bitcoin’s success is not dependent on political outcomes.
*This is not investment advice.