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Despite a strong performance and increasing adoption, Solana’s (SOL) price might fail to break its all-time high this year. This prediction is based on several key indicators that have been crucial in determining the altcoin’s direction.
At the beginning of 2024, SOL’s value was less than $100. Three months later, the altcoin broke the $200 mark. However, since then, it has struggled to reach the milestone, and investors might have to wait until 2025 before seeing the token surpass $260.
Investors Reduce Exposure to Solana
One reason SOL reached $208 was its Open Interest (OI), which is an indicator of speculative activity. At that time, the OI climbed to $2.65 billion. Open Interest refers to the sum of the value of all open contracts in the market.
An increase in open interest, coupled with rising prices, typically signals the buildup of long positions. In most cases, this suggests that the upward trend is likely to continue. However, as of this writing, open interest has dropped by nearly $1 billion, indicating that many traders have reduced their exposure to the cryptocurrency.
From a price perspective, the declining OI, combined with the recent price surge over the past seven days, indicates that the uptrend may be losing momentum. If this trend continues, Solana’s price could struggle to retest the $200 mark before the end of 2024.
Read more: How to Buy Solana (SOL) and Everything You Need To Know
Besides that, one deciding factor has been the $180 supply zone. On several occasions, wherever SOL’s price hits $180, it becomes challenging to rise above the level without substantial buying pressure.
For instance, on April 9, the token hit $180. But a few days later, it lost 23% of its value. Fast-forward to July 30, and a similar thing happened as the altcoin declined by a similar ratio. Therefore, even if SOL tries to hit that point again, it might experience a double-digit decline.
SOL Price Prediction: Sub-130 Still Possible
From a short-term perspective, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has fallen into negative territory. The CMF is a technical oscillator that gauges the level of accumulation or distribution.
When the CMF rises, it signals a high level of accumulation, which can lead to a price increase if sustained. Conversely, a decline in the CMF indicates a higher level of distribution, which could signal potential bearish pressure.
Read more: 13 Best Solana (SOL) Wallets To Consider in October 2024
Due to the CMF’s current condition, Solana’s price might decrease to $127.75. But If the OI increases massively before this quarter ends, the prediction might not come to pass. Instead, SOL could rally above $200.