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- October’s historically positive trend for Bitcoin (“Uptober”) is being challenged by current bearish market sentiment.
- More to your point, Bitcoin has seen price increases in 9 out of the last 11 Octobers but it is down 4.7% so far this month.
- However even today some can take into account a short-term comeback at mid-October patterns if any.
The early days of the month of October indicate that the frequency of using the word Uptober, a bull name for the BTC and other altcoins, has significantly reduced. Santiment, a provider of on-chain analytics, has shown data according to which traders expect less of the typical October rally and demonstrate overall bearishness in the market. This change in sentiment follows several months of month-on-month decline which prompted some to dub it ‘Selltober’ or ‘Octobear’.
🎃 Mentions of "Uptober" have declined significantly, painting a picture that traders have become much more bearish on the idea of this month being an automatic money printer for crypto. The lack of optimism opens the door for (at least) a short-term bounce. 📈 https://t.co/iACWMGPvSs
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 3, 2024
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance in October
Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has seen price increases in nine of those Octobers, with significant gains recorded in the last five consecutive years. In some cases, the cryptocurrency has posted monthly growth rates ranging between 5.5% and 40%, even during broader market downturns.
This pattern of October price increases led to the term “Uptober,” highlighting the month’s historically positive trend for Bitcoin.Despite this historical precedent, the current market conditions seem far less favorable. And bitcoin has already declined by about 4.7% since early October.
The cryptocurrency has slid from a monthly high of $64,000 to this price level just above $60,000. The broader crypto market has also been on a rough workout as its market cap has decreased by roughly $200 billion from the beginning of the month. This means that the total value in the market has fallen by 8 percent and the market capitalization is back to where it was mid-September.
Declining Sentiment But a Potential Rebound?
However, there are signs that we may see a bull run soon in the short timeframe, according to Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment. Balashevich points to the pattern ‘’Uptober’‘ in previous years, but notes that uncertainty about the end of downtrend.
There are reports from analysts waiting to know if this year is going to follow a similar pattern as mid-October is usually seen as the ‘crypto market bounce back’ period. “I expect a fluctuation in this year depending on investors’ response to externalities and basic market benchmarks.