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- Kaiko Research highlights potential bearish signs for a notable real-world asset (RWA) project.
- Ondo Finance seems to be losing momentum as the excitement around RWA projects diminishes.
- Fed’s expected interest rate cuts in September could exacerbate investment outflows from Ondo Finance.
Discover why Ondo Finance’s future might be at risk and what role Fed’s monetary policy plays in shaping its trajectory.
Ondo Finance Facing Potential Decline Amid Lower Hype and Monetary Policy Changes
In a recent analysis by Kaiko Research, known for its comprehensive crypto market data, concerns are raised about the prospects of Ondo Finance. This RWA project that once saw substantial traction is now witnessing reduced enthusiasm. The decline in excitement could be traced back to a broader trend affecting similar projects.
Impact of Anticipated Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
Market expectations around Federal Reserve policies are adding another layer of uncertainty. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, a significant 67.5% of market participants predict a 25 basis points cut in interest rates by the Fed next month. Given that many funds, including those related to RWA projects, are tied to short-term U.S. debt instruments, these anticipated cuts might deter fresh investments into funds like Ondo Finance’s offerings.
Previous Market Performance and Current Trends
Ondo Finance’s governance token, ONDO, previously surged to a record $1.56 when the project announced its collaboration with BlackRock’s BUIDL and saw enhanced interest in tokenized on-chain funds. This rise was largely driven by the overall boom in the RWA segment and significant on-chain activity. However, the token has seen a steep decline, trading at $0.67 at the time of writing, which denotes a 1.8% drop in the past 24 hours. This decline underscores a broader trend where the initial hype has significantly cooled down, and the inflows are now facing headwinds due to changing U.S. rate conditions.
Navigating the Bearish Outlook
The broader context provided by Kaiko Research indicates that major funds investing in short-term U.S. debt instruments—the cornerstone of many tokenized holdings—are likely to experience lower yields. Influential funds such as Franklin Templeton’s FBOXX, Hashnote’s USYC, and those managed by Ondo Finance, align their yields with the Fed funds rate, and any shift in this rate can affect their attractiveness.
Furthermore, as the initial enthusiasm for tokenized funds subsides, both on-chain transaction volumes and secondary market activities for related tokens decline. This situation was vividly illustrated when ONDO’s trading activity surged in tandem with the collaboration news but began to taper off soon after.
Conclusion
In summary, while Ondo Finance experienced a period of significant growth tied to the RWA trend, changing market conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts pose substantial challenges. Investors should stay informed about macroeconomic developments and consider the long-term viability when evaluating investments in such projects.