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As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, which includes Bitcoin and all altcoins, has not yet surpassed its previous all-time highs when adjusted for inflation. The peak was around $73,000, surpassing the previous high of $69,000 in the last cycle.
For altcoins, similar performance patterns are expected. Analyst Jeff Sekinger said that historically, altcoins tend to break new highs approximately 1,065 days after Bitcoin’s last peak. This timeline suggests that we might see altcoin rallies around October 2024. After Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in December 2020, altcoins took some time before they began their own rally.
Market Phases and Altcoin Performance
Phase One: Following a market bottom, Bitcoin often leads the rally as it recovers first. As investors begin to see gains, capital starts to flow into Ethereum and other major altcoins.
Phase Two: This phase aligns with the having event (the periodic reduction in Bitcoin block rewards), during which Bitcoin continues to lead. However, excitement around altcoins builds, and investments spill over into larger-cap altcoins.
Phase Three: As the market matures, Bitcoin dominance may start to wane. This phase often sees Bitcoin prices flirting with or achieving new all-time highs. Historical data shows that Phase Three shows Bitcoin nearing or surpassing its previous highs before a broader altcoin rally begins.
Phase Four: This phase, occurring after the having event, often sees explosive growth in altcoins. Investors start to see significant returns from smaller-cap and newer altcoins as capital flows out of Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins into these high-risk, high-reward assets.
Bitcoin Dominance:
Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin’s market cap as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap, currently stands between 55% and 60%. It is expected to decline to around 58% by the end of 2024. This decrease indicates a shift of capital into altcoins.