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In the last market cycle, altcoin and Bitcoin pairs capitulated in June 2019, just before the United States Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
The chart pattern for this cycle is identical, and if history rhymes, a similar final flush out of altcoins may be imminent before this month’s Fed rate decision on June 12.
However, crypto and stock markets fell late last week on the U.S. jobs data, which could also mean that the Fed will leave rates alone.
In June 2019, #ALT / #BTC pairs capitulated to the range lows just before the Fed cut interest rates.
We find ourselves at a similar spot in June 2024. pic.twitter.com/Qj1CUZJoev
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) June 8, 2024
Altseason Soon … Or Not?
Nevertheless, analysts are still predicting that altseason is just around the corner. On June 8, crypto analyst ‘Moustache’ compared the last market cycle with the current one, noting the similarities in structure and commenting that history doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.
#Altcoins 2020/2021 vs. #Altcoins 2023/2024
History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes.
Send this whole market up. pic.twitter.com/vmdwxko9lq
— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) June 8, 2024
MN Trading cofounder Michaël van de Poppe commented on the recent market correction in a post on X on June 8, adding that he was “expecting a bullish breakout happening in the coming week” and was “still happily positioned” into altcoins.
Meanwhile, ‘Mister Crypto’ told his 120,000 X followers on June 8 that Bitcoin season looks “bottomed out” and altseason could start soon.
Industry observer ‘Viktor’ shared a similar chart on X, stating, “We’re at the same spot as in October 2023 and as during the 2nd April crash.”
#Bitcoin Season looks bottomed out.
Altseason will start here. pic.twitter.com/9tN7umLODb
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) June 8, 2024
Bitcoin market dominance is one solid indicator of an approaching altcoin rally. It is currently 55.2% having climbed almost 8% since the beginning of the year, according to TradingView.
However, Bitcoin dominance needs to break below 50% before any hopes of altseason can really materialize and this doesn’t look like happening for a while yet.
Altcoins Remain Bearish
Many have been eyeing Ethereum as it usually leads any altcoin rally. However, ETH has also retreated over the past few days dropping 3.3% over the past week in a fall to $3,680 during early trading on June 9.
The altcoins are in more pain at the moment, with a sea of red across the board this weekend and heavier losses for Toncoin (TON), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Near Protocol (NEAR).
If the Fed leaves interest rates at 5.25% to 5.50% next week, crypto markets, particularly altcoins, could see more volatility and pain before any meaningful gains.