Notcoin ($NOT) Analysis: Bullish Pennant Pattern vs. Bearish Indicators

Notcoin (NOT) recently experienced a dramatic rally, surging over 300% in just two weeks before retracing. Despite this pullback, NOT still maintains an 82% gain over the past week, thanks to its rapid climb to a new all-time high of $0.02836.

However, in the last 24 hours, the Notcoin price has trended downward, raising concerns among investors about whether to sell or hold. The recent declines in trading volume and open interest have fueled questions about the market’s future direction. As of press time, NOT was up 1.22%, trading at $0.0221, while its market capitalization increased by 1.16% to $2,271,366,971.

NOT/USD 1-day price chart (source:CoinMarketCap)

Despite the market cap surge, there has been a reduction in trading volume for Notcoin, with a decrease of 21.17% to $3.71 billion. This sharp decline indicates a drop in trading activity and potentially lower liquidity, suggesting a lack of confidence or interest in the current market direction for NOT.

Notcoin (NOT) Derivatives Data

Similarly, open interest has decreased by 4.60% to $285.91 million. This reduction implies that traders are closing their positions, a common occurrence in anticipation of lower volatility or uncertainty about future price movements. The substantial losses in long positions, particularly within the 4-hour timeframe, underscore the recent price declines, with long positions incurring $505.25K in losses compared to $118.97K for short positions.

Over the longer 12-hour and 24-hour periods, the losses from long positions significantly outweigh those from short positions.

NOT Derivatives Data

Specifically, long positions have lost $1.15M and $3.06M, respectively, while short positions incurred losses of $882.13K and $2.10M. This data suggests that longer-term price trends may be moving against the bulls, potentially indicating a bearish sentiment in the market.

NOT/USD Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of Notcoin highlights a Bullish Pennant pattern, often associated with a continuation of an existing uptrend after a brief consolidation period. Following a significant rise in Notcoin’s price, this pattern has formed, with the consolidation ending near the $0.022 level. Such patterns are critical in predicting potential bullish movements.

Regarding support and resistance, Notcoin faces immediate resistance at the peak of the pennant, around $0.0223. A successful breakout above this resistance could signal the continuation of the bullish trend. Conversely, support lies at the pennant’s lower trend line at approximately $0.0210. A break below this level might indicate a reversal or a bearish deviation from the current pattern.

NOT/USD 2-hour price chart (source: TradingView)

On the NOTUSD price chart, the Alligator Indicator, the jaws, teeth, and lips show these lines entwined, indicating a consolidation phase typical of the pennant pattern. The MACD, currently below the signal line and near zero, suggests a lack of strong momentum but may precede a bullish crossover if the price rises.

Concurrently, the Aroon Indicator reinforces this view, with the Aroon Up above 70, signifying a strong recent bullish presence, while the Aroon Down below 30 indicates minimal bearish activity. Additionally, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is below zero and trending downward, suggesting bearish momentum, though a reversal could signal a change in trend. If this trend continues, traders may need to set stop-loss orders to prevent further losses.