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Cryptocurrencies extended their decline Tuesday while stocks posted a modest rebound following Monday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales data.
Bitcoin and ether slid around 3% each Tuesday, erasing Monday’s slight gains. Bitcoin hovered around $62,400 at time of publication. The largest cryptocurrency looks poised to enter its next halving — expected to happen late this Friday — in the red.
While some traders are betting on the halving being bitcoin’s next catalyst for a run, researchers warn that the event is likely already priced in.
“The halving itself is already known to all market participants, so something like a decrease in issuance that’s already well-known theoretically shouldn’t impact the market at all,” Michael Zhao, researcher at Grayscale, said.
Equities on Tuesday inched into the green. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composites gained about 0.1% by mid-way through the trading session.
US retail sales in March increased 0.7%, according to data released by the Commerce Department Monday. Analysts had expected a 0.4% rise. The report, coupled with last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation data, has traders skeptical that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before this summer.
A healthy consumer market, as good as it may seem, is not boding well for the interest rate cutting schedule. CME futures data show a 0.4% chance of a rate cut in May and a 19% chance central bankers will slash rates in June.
“More recent data show solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2% inflation goal,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday during a panel discussion at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy.
Rates are going to have to stay higher for longer, he added, confirming the widespread market sentiment.
“Fed Expectations has hopes for a June rate cut dashed by the hot CPI report and now the market must deal with the possibility of just two — or even fewer — rate cuts in 2024,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. “Remember the market started the year expecting seven cuts.”