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The Crypto Market Cap (TOTALCAP) trades inside a parallel channel while Bitcoin (BTC) broke down from one. THORChain (RUNE) has fallen since December 4, 2023.
In the news today:
- The Gemini cryptocurrency exchange has received regulatory approval to begin operations in France.
- After a lackluster 5-hour hearing, the conflict between the SEC and Coinbase has not been resolved.
TOTALCAP Trades Inside Channel
The cryptocurrency market cap has traded inside an ascending parallel channel since December 2023. Such channels often contain corrective movements.
The channel’s resistance trend line rejected the price on January 11 (red icon) and has fallen since. It currently trades close to its support trend line.
The trend line also coincides with a long-term horizontal and Fib support level at $1.61 trillion, which now acts as support.
Whether TOTALCAP breaks down below this level or bounces can determine the future trend’s direction.
A regression below the confluence of supports can trigger a 15% drop to the closest support at $1.40 trillion.
On the other hand, a strong bounce and breakout from the channel can cause a 30% increase to the next resistance at $2.10 trillion.
Bitcoin Breaks Down From Channel
Like TOTALCAP, the BTC price had traded inside an ascending parallel channel since December. However, BTC broke out from the channel on January 12, 2024. This is a sign that the upward movement has ended.
Currently, BTC trades below the channel’s support trend line, possibly validating it as resistance. The trend is bearish until Bitcoin reclaims the channel’s support trend line.
The most likely scenario is a 12% BTC decrease to the closest support at $37,700.
Despite this bearish BTC price prediction, reclaiming the channel’s support trend line will mean a reversal is underway. Then, BTC can increase by nearly 13% to the channel’s resistance trend line at $48,250.
RUNE’s Gradual Decrease Continues
The RUNE price has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since December 4, 2023. The trend line has been validated numerous times, more recently on January 11 (red icon). This caused a rejection and accelerated the downward movement.
RUNE also fell below the $5.20 horizontal support area during the drop. Combined with the resistance trend line, it creates a descending triangle, considered a bearish pattern.
A descent that travels the entire triangle’s height will lead to a 30% drop to the next support at $2.90.
Despite this bearish RUNE price prediction, breaking out above the resistance trend line will mean the trend is still bullish. Then, RUNE can increase by 40% to the next resistance at $6.
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