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The recent banking crisis in the United States seems to have shaken the belief of some customers in the legacy banking system. According to Federal Reserve data, customers pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits in the week ending March 15.
American venture capital investor and entrepreneur Tim Draper said in a March 25 report that “founders need to consider a more diversified cash management approach” due to the over-regulation of banks and micromanagement by the government. As part of a contingency plan, Draper suggested businesses keep “ at least 6 months of short-term cash in each of two banks, one local bank and one global bank, and at least two payrolls worth of cash in Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptocurrencies.”
The move from the traditional banking system to cryptocurrencies may have already started as seen from the strong showing of Bitcoin in the past few days. Even after the recent up-move, investors do not seem to be hurrying to book profits in Bitcoin. However, the same cannot be said about most altcoins as they have witnessed a minor pullback.
In the short term, traders need to be selective of the cryptocurrencies to trade. Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins which may start the next leg of the up-move.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been hovering around the $28,000 level for the past few days. A consolidation after a strong rally is a positive sign as it shows that traders are holding on to their position, expecting a further up-move.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($25,936) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive area suggest the bulls remain in control. That enhances the prospects of a break above $28,900.
If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the $30,000 to $32,000 resistance zone. The bears will try to defend this zone with all their might because if they fail in their endeavor, the pair may skyrocket to $40,000.
The vital support on the downside is $25,250. If this level fails to hold up, the pair may tumble to the 200-day simple moving average ($20,179).
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading in a range between $26,500 and $28,900 for some time. The 20-EMA is flat and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
A break above $28,900 will signal that bulls have overpowered the bears. That will indicate the resumption of the up-move. On the contrary, if the price breaks below $26,500, the pair may tumble to $25,250 and then to $24,000.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) soared above the overhead resistance of $0.43 on March 21. The bears tried to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the price below the moving averages but the bulls held their ground.
Buyers are trying to push the price toward the overhead resistance at $0.51. If bulls clear this obstacle, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.56. This level is likely to witness aggressive selling by the bears but if buyers bulldoze their way through, the next stop may be $0.80.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from $0.51. During the pullback, if bulls flip the $0.43 level into support, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive. That will increase the likelihood of a break above $0.51.
The crucial support to watch on the downside is $0.40. If this level gives way, the next support is $0.36.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are trying to defend the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.46 and the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-EMA. This shows a state of equilibrium between the bulls and the bears.
If the price sustains above $0.46, it will suggest that bulls have seized control. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.49 where the bears may again mount a strong defense. On the other hand, if the price slips below the 20-EMA, the pair may fall to $0.43 and then to $0.40.
Litecoin price analysis
While most major altcoins are struggling to start a recovery, Litecoin (LTC) is showing signs of strength. The 20-day EMA ($86) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating advantage to buyers.
The LTC/USDT pair could first rise to $98 and then retest the strong overhead resistance at $106. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it crumbles, the pair may accelerate to $115 and then to $130.
Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from $106, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the 20-day EMA. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive. The bulls will then make another attempt to resume the up-move.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a drop to $75.
The rebound off the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The bulls will try to kick the price above $96 and extend the up-move to the overhead resistance at $106.
Contrarily, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair could then descend to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair may tumble to $75.
Related: Bitcoin is 1 week away from 'confirming' new bull market — analyst
Monero price analysis
After trading near the moving averages for a few days, Monero (XMR) has broken free and is trying to climb higher.
The 20-day EMA ($153) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers have the edge. There is a minor resistance at $170 but if bulls overcome this barrier, the XMR/USDT pair could pick up momentum and soar to $187 and subsequently to $210.
The moving averages are expected to provide support during pullbacks. A break and close below the 200-day SMA ($150) could turn the tide in favor of the bears. The pair may then slump to $132.
The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart is sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. The pair could reach $169 where the bulls may again face stiff resistance from the bears.
However, on the way down, if bulls do not allow the price to break below the 20-EMA, it will increase the likelihood of a rally above $169. If that happens, the pair may climb to $180 and later to $188.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-EMA. That could open the doors for a possible drop to the 200-SMA.
Avalanche price analysis
The bulls have successfully held Avalanche (AVAX) above the moving averages, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The price has been consolidating between $18.25 and the 200-day SMA ($16.05) for the past few days but this range-bound action is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers thrust the price above $18.25, the AVAX/USDT pair will attempt a rally to $22 where they may face strong selling by the bears.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price plummets and sustains below the 200-day SMA. The pair could then slide to $15.24 and thereafter to $14.
The bulls have successfully guarded the $16.25 level on the downside but they have failed to propel the pair above the resistance line. This indicates that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies. The flattish 20-EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to buyers or sellers.
This uncertainty could tilt in favor of the bulls if they take out the resistance line. The pair may then start the next leg of the recovery to $20 and later to $22. A break and close below $16.25 will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.