Justin Drake: Quantum computing could break crypto keys in minutes, Ethereum aims for post-quantum security by 2029, and the race to secure blockchain against quantum threats | Unchained

Key takeaways

• Quantum computing poses a significant threat to current cryptographic systems used in crypto.
• The emergence of quantum computers necessitates a strategic allocation of resources to mitigate risks.
• Quantum computers could potentially break cryptographic keys in a matter of minutes.
• Three key cryptographic components in crypto are vulnerable to quantum computing.
• Quantum computers, if built at a large enough scale, can break existing cryptographic systems.
• There is a reasonable chance of having a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by 2031.
• Improvements in quantum algorithms are reducing the number of qubits needed to break Ethereum’s cryptography.
• A cryptographically relevant quantum computer could compromise the security of the entire crypto industry.
• Cold storage wallets can be secured against quantum attacks by not revealing the public key until a transaction is made.
• Approximately 30% of keys are not protected behind a hash, posing a security risk.
• The transition to post-quantum cryptography involves both technical and social challenges.
• To maintain long-term privacy, blockchain systems must adopt quantum secure cryptography now.
• Privacy coins like Zcash will be prime targets for quantum computers due to their ability to allow fund theft without detection.
• Ethereum plans to upgrade all its cryptography to be post-quantum secure by 2029.
• The blockchain industry will attract a significant amount of post-quantum talent in the near future.

Guest intro

Justin Drake is a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation. He played a key role in Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, known as The Merge. His work focuses on cryptographic protocols, scalability, and security in blockchain technology.

The threat of quantum computing to cryptographic security

• “Quantum computers could potentially break cryptographic keys in a matter of minutes.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computing poses a significant threat to current cryptographic systems used in crypto.” – Justin Drake
• “Three key cryptographic components in crypto are vulnerable to quantum computing.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computers, if built at a large enough scale, can break existing cryptographic systems.” – Justin Drake
• “There is a reasonable chance we could have a cryptographically relevant quantum computer by 2031.” – Justin Drake
• The improvement in quantum algorithms is significantly reducing the number of qubits needed to break Ethereum’s cryptography.
• A cryptographically relevant quantum computer could compromise the security of the entire crypto industry.
• “The emergence of a powerful quantum computer poses a systemic risk to all crypto.” – Justin Drake
• Quantum computers could disrupt blockchain consensus mechanisms by breaking the cryptographic protections in place.
• “Quantum computers may take a long time to break cryptographic keys, but other modalities like supercomputing can do it much faster.” – Justin Drake

Preparing for quantum threats in blockchain

• “We need to start preparing for the transition to new cryptography well in advance of the arrival of quantum computers.” – Justin Drake
• Cold storage wallets can be secured against quantum attacks by not revealing the public key until a transaction is made.
• “Approximately 30% of keys are not protected behind a hash, which poses a security risk.” – Justin Drake
• Exchanges typically manage their assets through a tiered storage system including cold, lukewarm, and hot wallets.
• “There is a competitive race among major companies to develop quantum computers that could potentially attack crypto.” – Justin Drake
• Governments are heavily investing in quantum computing technology, but their progress is largely undisclosed.
• “China is likely one of the few governments motivated to attack blockchain technologies.” – Justin Drake
• The transition to post-quantum cryptography involves both technical and social challenges.
• “The size problem in post-quantum cryptography significantly impacts blockchain throughput.” – Justin Drake
• Signature aggregation is a solution being developed to address the size problem in blockchain transactions.

The future of blockchain security

• “Bitcoin’s infrequent upgrades pose a risk in the face of advancing quantum computing technology.” – Justin Drake
• “It would be catastrophic if each blockchain developed its own post-quantum solution independently.” – Justin Drake
• Collaboration between Ethereum and Bitcoin could lead to a unified post-quantum cryptographic solution.
• “Having broad industry standards in cryptography is beneficial for interoperability and security.” – Justin Drake
• The Falcon signature scheme is a notable example of a cryptographic standard being adopted for post-quantum security.
• Algorand’s state proofs utilize the Falcon signature scheme to provide post-quantum secure attestations of the blockchain state.
• “Post-quantum signatures enhance security by preventing quantum computers from forging signatures.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computing poses a significant threat to current encryption methods used in blockchain technology.” – Justin Drake
• To maintain long-term privacy, blockchain systems must adopt quantum secure cryptography now.
• Privacy coins like Zcash will be prime targets for quantum computers due to their ability to allow fund theft without detection.

Ethereum’s approach to quantum security

• “Ethereum’s lost coins represent a negligible portion of its circulating supply.” – Justin Drake
• Migration to post-quantum secure wallets may require user action unless a proof of knowledge of the seed phrase is implemented.
• In the event of a quantum attack, Ethereum may need to shut down temporarily to implement security measures.
• The transition to post-quantum secure cryptography for Ethereum will involve a complex process that could temporarily halt the network.
• “Ethereum plans to upgrade all its cryptography to be post-quantum secure by 2029.” – Justin Drake
• “Algorand’s approach to upgrades involves deploying state proofs and iterating based on learned experiences.” – Justin Drake
• Post quantum cryptography has very different performance profiles compared to classical cryptography.
• Starting early with post quantum transitions is essential to learn and adjust strategies.
• “The blockchain industry will attract a significant amount of post-quantum talent in the near future.” – Justin Drake
• Hash-based cryptography is being pursued for its uncompromising security in addressing the size problem.

The role of hash-based cryptography

• “Hash-based cryptography is chosen for its uncompromising security despite larger signature sizes compared to lattice-based signatures.” – Justin Drake
• The ‘hash gambit’ allows for larger signatures while solving size problems with smaller, fast-to-verify proofs.
• “Sharded mempools can effectively manage transaction flow and enhance scalability.” – Justin Drake
• Hash-based signatures offer a combination of security and simplicity, making them a viable option for blockchain technology.
• Merkle trees and hash-based signatures are foundational technologies that can enhance blockchain security.
• “Post-quantum cryptography is evolving with practical applications emerging from theoretical concepts.” – Justin Drake
• Lattice-based cryptography and hash-based cryptography are key categories selected for post-quantum cryptography standards.
• “Lattice-based cryptography will lead to significant advancements in privacy and computation within the next five to ten years.” – Justin Drake
• Nick Carter’s concerns about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum threats are valid.
• Bitcoin may not withstand the test of time due to its security budget.

Addressing Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerabilities

• “A small group of researchers can effectively address technical challenges in blockchain technology.” – Justin Drake
• The migration process for Bitcoin could take about a year.
• Increasing the block size is a technically naive solution to Bitcoin’s aggregation problem.
• Hash-based signatures can provide a scalability boost for Bitcoin without increasing block size.
• “Quantum computers will eventually scale up to break current cryptography, but the timeline is uncertain.” – Justin Drake
• The timeline for the emergence of quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography is unpredictable.
• Satoshi’s coins pose a unique threat to Bitcoin due to their large quantity and public key structure.
• The potential theft of Satoshi’s coins could lead to a contentious debate and possible fork in the Bitcoin community.
• The portrayal of the quantum threat to Bitcoin may be overstated, with only a small number of bitcoins actually vulnerable.
• Quantum computing could potentially allow for the theft of Satoshi’s coins within a couple of years.

The urgency of upgrading blockchain security

• “The speed of quantum computing advancements could lead to rapid and widespread capabilities that outpace current security measures.” – Justin Drake
• Quantum computers can quietly accumulate secret keys before executing an attack on blockchain wallets.
• Chains must upgrade their security measures before quantum computing becomes a threat.
• AI may accelerate the discovery of mathematical breakthroughs that could threaten current cryptographic systems.
• The migration to post-quantum cryptography should be done quickly and is also a migration to post-AI cryptography.
• “We should avoid structured assumptions in cryptography and favor maximally unstructured methods like hash-based cryptography.” – Justin Drake
• The way we think about post-quantum cryptography is shifting from a defensive to an aggressive strategy.
• Ethereum’s proactive approach to quantum security could attract institutional capital.
• “Ethereum is becoming an attractive asset for investors due to its proactive stance on quantum threats.” – Justin Drake